As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we’re at…
Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.
Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.
Let’s look at the map:
So, of the “Undecideds”, PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.
PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.
So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.
If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.
Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.
I can’t believe it’s this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can’t handle another Trump presidency.
Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.
Moving out of the country is impossible for 99% of the people who would want to.
I’m starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don’t want to call it bias, it’s just a blind spot that their model isn’t getting all the input for.
Of course it’s not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
Polling is inherently problematic every time you see they polled “likely voters” as opposed to “registered voters”.
If they’re self selecting who they consider to be “likely”, it’s going to have a skewed result.
Likely voters are those that have voted before, that’s what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they’re the more accurate people to be polling.
Hope she wins, and pushes through something to dismantle the collage. We need ranked choice.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a good first step: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
This is just a bandaid and the conservative justices on the supreme court will strike it down for some stupid reason.
Not sure how. The Constitution is pretty explicit that States get to determine how they send delegates to the EC.
We cant dismantle the electoral college easily, but what we can do is revoke the law putting caps on the number of representatives and electoral college votes. It wouldnt be perfect but it may be enough to knee cap the GOP for awhile. Also pass a law that allows reps to vote remotely from home offices in their districts.
99% of the problems stem from the house not getting bigger over the last 100 years.
Yep, both the house and college were meant to expand with tge population, which makes their issues far less egregious. Is the electoral college particularly good? Fuck no, but it was never meant to meant to be capped either it was still a proportional system. Hell the only reason either were capped was due to the fact that at the time the population was in flux both in number and location, but it shouldve been uncapped either in the 50s or 60s since thats around when things stabilized.
Unless she gets the presidency, the Democrats roll up supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a majority of states put in Democratic governors, this isn’t happening. IE: it isn’t happening.
There are in fact a couple of workarounds for this.
If Harris wins and Dems get enough majority control of both houses (enough to get around likely no votes from maverick Dems like Joe Manchin), then the Senate majority leader (Schumer) can lower the bar for a filibuster to a bare majority.
Then pass a new law appointing nine new Supreme Court justices. Harris nominates them and the Senate approves them.
Then pass a new federal law that requires the electoral vote of states to follow the nationwide popular vote, as per the Compact. You get the same effect without needing the States to sign on, and with the court packed the law hopefully will be able to withstand the challenges.
Plan B - if we really do need a constitutional amendment to fix this and abolish the Electoral College outright - then drop the filibuster as above, but then follow this plan https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21063591/modest-proposal-to-save-american-democracy-pack-the-union-harvard-law-review
Basically pass a law that allows each neighborhood of DC to be admitted in as a new state - so 127 in all - and with the new supermajority of states (and corresponding supermajorities in both Houses), pass whatever constitutional amendments are required.
IEE: It isn’t happening.
It would also require the Democrat will to move that mountain as above, which I don’t think exists even if there were supermajorities and governors to do it. They benefit almost as much from the 2-party system and electoral college as the Republicans.
Almost the whole house is up for reelection this November as well, so maybe at least that part can be handled.
The whole house and 1/3 of the senate is up for reelection every 2 years…
Cat ladies doing our part! 💪😻
If Diaper wins I’m done. Just move to the boonies and just go full media blackout until 2028 or when the zombies show up
The boonies are full of red hats. That’s the last place you’ll want to be
If his first presidency during COVID wasn’t enough motivation to move to the boonies, a subsequent one without COVID won’t be.
But, I sincerely hope to see you out here with us who’ve effected the idea. There’s lots of space and, based on why you’d leave, we’d love to have you.
Don’t worry about the red hats. Most of them are fucking awesome to the people right in front of them. It’s the scaled anonymous crowd they can’t process.
I really hate our electoral college system. Giving undue privilege to certain regions, most especially rural areas, is exceedingly stupid and just holds this country back so very much. It’d be one thing if more weight was given to the areas that the most going for them - as far as GDP/brain power/influence and so on. But instead, it’s the opposite.
Apologists for the slavery-era holdover that is the EC will say “but the candidates will just mostly go to big cities” - yeah, NO KIDDING. That’s where the fucking people are. That’s who the government serves. Not land. Right now the candidates mostly campaign in “battleground states” because of the stupid and backward EC. Instead of trying to get the most votes across the entire nation.
Ridiculous.
Our Senate and House are not that much better than the way we choose Presidents, either. The population of states is not given proper consideration, even for the House.
