Donald Trump’s campaign insists that they’re pursuing multiple strategies against Kamala Harris, but the true picture that is emerging is that the Trump senior advisers’ grand plan, for now, is to pray that the former US president has a good night at the presidential debate next month.
The game plan, in other words, has become one of hoping that Trump wins the debate so they can regain momentum – a stunning approach that shows the serious predicament for Trump and his campaign as he struggles to find ways to land effective attacks against the vice-president just months before the election.
What has happened internally in the Trump campaign in recent weeks is the realization that nothing they do in the period up to the debate is likely to cut through in a significant way that blunts Harris’s gains that have her level in key swing state polls, according to people close to the matter.
And because they don’t think the messaging will cut through, senior advisers are left hoping that Trump can energize voters with his performance on stage, the people said.
As the article says, she is only level in key swing states. While 538 does give her good chances overall, they also gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning. It is closer than it should be so make sure to get it and vote and make sure that your friends do too.
I think a 10 chamber revolver with 3 random bullets (swing states) is a better analogy, and gets you to 70% I think, instead of 66.666.
I don’t want to play either though. So I’m going to vote against racism and fascism like we all should.
Nate Silver notes that while her projected popular vote share has increased over the last ten days, her odds of winning the electoral college has actually gone down slightly, to about 47%. This indicates that a lot of the support she has gained has disproportionately come from states she was already likely to win.
Basically, until we get more data, we can see a small convention bounce in the polling, which typically fades. If her battleground-state numbers reflect that temporary bounce, then she’s even with Trump right now and may potentially fade back to slightly behind in the coming weeks.
The general message is this: Harris has momentum, but that doesn’t change the fact that even with momentum, it’s basically a dead heat. Despite all the celebratory gusto recently, at best she’s one mistake away from losing. At worst, she’s on track to execute a flawless campaign that still ends with her winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college. No one should be breathing easily.
And that’s without factoring in all the voter suppression/purges and other state-level activities of the Republicans to win battleground states, which the Democrats have done basically fuck-all about.
Hoping the Republicans don’t do illegal and/or unethical things to win is a losing strategy. This is a candidate that tried to have his VP hanged for not subverting the entire democratic process.
I’m going with professor Alan Lictman. He is batting 1,000 in presidential elections.
Donald Trump right now
Doesn’t matter. Go out and vote.
She’s a former prosecutor. He’s a compulsive liar, misogynist and racist former reality TV star with dementia who isn’t used to being told to wait his turn before he can speak.
He better pray to every god he can come up with.
Harris didn’t do well in 2020 (edit: 2019) though. She was very uncharismatic. To her credit, she seems to have worked on that a lot since then.
She’s also the nominee with all the DNC money and backing. She will have the best consultants, advisors, resources, etc, and she strikes me as the sort of person who listens to constructive feedback. In the primary, she was working against a lot of the best people in the Democratic party. She now has everyone behind her pushing forward, which is entirely different from trying to pull out ahead of a pack.
In the primary, she was on stage with Biden and Bernie and Warren and Klobuchar and Buttigieg and Yang and Beto and Booker and Castro and Gabbard and at least three other people nobody remembers. Some of those people are better speakers, some are better debaters, some have better records, some are better leaders, some have better ideas, and almost all of them are not entirely batshit insane.
She now only has to debate Donald Trump. She is a better speaker, better debater, better leader, has a better record, has better ideas, and will be the only candidate on stage who isn’t entirely batshit insane. She will also be the only candidate on stage that isn’t a racist. The only one who isn’t a convicted felon. The only one who isn’t a rapist. The only candidate who didn’t incite an assault on the Capitol building to stop an election. The only candidate who isn’t misogynist. The only candidate who hasn’t sold state secrets to an enemy government. The only candidate who hasn’t committed a felony at Arlington National Cemetery.
Plus she likes dogs.
I agree, plus people are generally tired of him. He rode a transient wave in 2016 but things are different now.
Yeah but he has a cult behind him who takes every one of his words as gospel
She’s a former prosecutor. He’s a compulsive liar
People developing some real blinkered views of the trustworthiness of prosecutors, all of a sudden. John Corbyn, Greg Abbott, and Ken Paxton are all current/former AGs and they lie like it’s breathing.
Trustworthiness is not even slightly what people mean by that. What they’re talking about is her having exceptional debating skills because that’s what you do in a courtroom.
It’s about being able to form cogent arguments and rebuttals while publicly speaking. It has nothing to do with trustworthiness.
I keep asking you this and you keep refusing to answer, but I’ll ask you again: Who should Americans vote for president in November?
It’s about being able to form cogent arguments and rebuttals while publicly speaking.
This isn’t Lincoln-Douglas at the Harvard Yacht Club. People aren’t tuning in to make up their minds.
Modern presidential debates are just nationally syndicated The Dozens. People tune in to heckle the people they hate and cheer the ones they love.
Past that, which debate in Harris’s last nine years on the national stage made her look cogent? She’s been at this since 2015. Her claim to fame right now is “You didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree” followed by nervous laughter.
Who should Americans vote for president in November?
I’m being told it all rides on this next televised shouting match, so I guess we’ll have to watch the debate to find out.
Coincidentally, the least trainable dog I have ever met was an Italian greyhound like the one in your picture.
