The threats, which already closed government offices and caused school evacuations, come as Trump pushes racist lie
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So terrorism…
No, no, no, no, it’s only terrorism if the perpetrators are brown. If they’re white republicans it’s just a little prankarooni!
Terrorist and chief. We have so many more wonderful things to look forward to. The MAGA cult is terrible.
I doubt it will happen, but it would be poetic justice if so many people get pissed over this that Trump loses Ohio.
Current model from Silver and the polls raw data averages say it’s not even close. Trump will win the state by a 97.6% to 2.4% spread.
Because so many of you cannot understand modeling vs polling averages… that is the likelihood of a win as a result of taking poll inputs through Silver’s model, reflecting overall chances of a win as a output.
It is NOT polling average percentages.
In the latest version I found of Nate Silver’s model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he’s basing that on.
However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris’s <5% of outcomes.
This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn’t that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.
The numbers I gave are the model outputs for the state as of yesterday off his subscriber based model talk page.
So no.
Of course these are the likelihood of a win and not polling differences. That’s why I said model output, not a poll aggregate.
An 8 point spread in a state for polling averages is incredibly large. For reference Ohio is as deeply spread red in polling averages as Nee Jersey is blue. You think New Jersey votes red this year in any reasonable reality? No.
For an even more crazy but accurate comparison: Alaska has the same mid point statistical odds of going red as Ohio, but its error bars are more than double Ohio. Meaning? There is an incredibly slim but massively more possible chance Alaska goes blue than Ohio.
Unfortunately that’s not usually the first impact of terrorism. Support for them will rise until they do something stupid, pointless, and tragic. Unfortunately by that time there’s thousands of people deep in the ideology in an area and it requires military action to clean up. Telling that something is wrong and we’re all hurting brings people in. Killing innocent people drives people away. It’s why David Duke is all rhetoric and little action. He can publicly sever himself and the movement from people who do take action while influencing them to do so and advancing his political position.
Genuine question: what’s the success rate of catching and prosecuting people who make these kinds of threats?
I’m guessing it’s either nearly 100% or depressingly low but nowhere in between.
I’d wager a lot of these people are indeed going to be caught because many are Trump cultists without the slightest clue what words like ‘opsec’ and ‘comsec’ mean. I think the real danger is the already militarized groups like the proud boys and three percenters using the chaos to sneak in their own bullshit. Essentially thanks to Trump riling up his base it’s like a DDOS attack but with terrorists eating up the investigators man-hours instead of a barrage of requests consuming data capacity.
Yup, this is a pretty well-known tactic, sadly. It’s effectively just paper terrorism - instead of doing the harder work of getting people incited to ACTUALLY kill people or do violence, you get them to do minor shit instead; bomb threats, assaults, etc, and use that as a smokescreen for the people who were already planning to do violence to go do violence effectively unchallenged.
