The threats, which already closed government offices and caused school evacuations, come as Trump pushes racist lie
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So let’s entertain the eating of pets thing was real (it’s not)… How do these help with that? In what way is disrupting hospitals obviously leading to patient care declining not 10000% worse than, eating a duck or cat or whatever…?
Fuck sake.
And elementary schools! Don’t forget elementary schools.
Something something think of the children! calls in bomb threat
For these people the point is clearly not about making anything “better” for anybody other than one orange traitor.
I wish I could say that once the election is over, all this shit will just fade into the rearview.
Jan 6th 2021 however tells us otherwise.
I fear the coming months.
The US has always had domestic terrorism sure, but you can’t tell me we didn’t legitimately become a straight up terror state once Trump stochastically sent his goons to do his bidding. Courts are citing the pressure these people are causing in their rulings and handlings of Trump, which means the terrorism is working to alter the rule of law. Since the US law system is based heavily on precedent, there’s a good chance this alteration of the law will extend beyond just for Trump. All it takes is the right (or wrong depending on your perspective) judge and enough money for a damn good lawyer.
Insert Reagan “we don’t negotiate with terrorists” while negotiating with terrorists
He was also wrong even in general. Negotiators are trained specifically because you do negotiate with terrorists. Not to give into their big demands, of course, but to try to end the situation with minimal bloodshed, especially to hostages and bystanders.
“We agree to pull back the perimeter by 15 feet. As a gesture of good faith, could you release three of the hostages? You’ll still have five more.” Or “Let’s do the exchange this way” which will just so happen to perfectly line up all the terrorists to give snipers a clear shot. That sort of thing.
I doubt it will happen, but it would be poetic justice if so many people get pissed over this that Trump loses Ohio.
Current model from Silver and the polls raw data averages say it’s not even close. Trump will win the state by a 97.6% to 2.4% spread.
Because so many of you cannot understand modeling vs polling averages… that is the likelihood of a win as a result of taking poll inputs through Silver’s model, reflecting overall chances of a win as a output.
It is NOT polling average percentages.
In the latest version I found of Nate Silver’s model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he’s basing that on.
However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris’s <5% of outcomes.
This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn’t that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.
The numbers I gave are the model outputs for the state as of yesterday off his subscriber based model talk page.
So no.
Of course these are the likelihood of a win and not polling differences. That’s why I said model output, not a poll aggregate.
An 8 point spread in a state for polling averages is incredibly large. For reference Ohio is as deeply spread red in polling averages as Nee Jersey is blue. You think New Jersey votes red this year in any reasonable reality? No.
For an even more crazy but accurate comparison: Alaska has the same mid point statistical odds of going red as Ohio, but its error bars are more than double Ohio. Meaning? There is an incredibly slim but massively more possible chance Alaska goes blue than Ohio.
Unfortunately that’s not usually the first impact of terrorism. Support for them will rise until they do something stupid, pointless, and tragic. Unfortunately by that time there’s thousands of people deep in the ideology in an area and it requires military action to clean up. Telling that something is wrong and we’re all hurting brings people in. Killing innocent people drives people away. It’s why David Duke is all rhetoric and little action. He can publicly sever himself and the movement from people who do take action while influencing them to do so and advancing his political position.
