The only certain thing is nobody knows who will be elected until after the polls close and counting is certified.
VOTE. Everyone vote as if yours is the only one that matters, because it may be.
I tend to wonder how these polls are conducted and who is answering them? Does anyone get polls via email or text? Are they still just calling people? I’m in my 40s and basically no one I know my age or younger answers numbers they don’t know anymore, and texts are ignored or flat out blocked because if you respond, they barrage you later, or at least that’s what we all assume.
So I’m not convinced polls have any bearing on what will happen anymore. VOTE!
Yes
Different polls with different methods.
Many call people, some online polls (using advertising with demographic targeting), some emails to various news list subscribers, some in person polling, etc. It’s definitely harder these days to get accurate numbers because fewer responders means self imposed selection bias by those answering, which can correlate to the answers you get in unpredictable ways.
To be fair, your vote statistically doesn’t matter in some states. I’ll make a bet with somebody that if I don’t vote in my state it won’t change anything.
Dems really phoned this one in.
There’s plenty of downticket races that potentially directly affect your life more that matter.
I don’t vote in my state it won’t change anything
Wrong, wrong and wrong.
Your vote matters down-ballot. Your vote matters for a mandate. Your vote matters because you will pay attention.
The trick is to get people to feel the way you do so they can rule you.
You wanna make a bet? If I don’t vote, my state will still vote Harris.
The trick is actually to trick people like you into thinking they have control when they actually don’t.
Federal, maybe, but it’s still important to vote for down ticket races, and your presidential vote can at least be a statistic toward the popular vote count. I get what you mean though, I’m from a consistently blue state.
That is an uncomfortably close margin but it’s good to see she’s leading now at least.
Other polls I had seen just yesterday (likely collected before Biden dropping out was a reality) still had Trump with a 1% or more lead over Harris, so they’re really all over the place and I wouldn’t trust them for much, even up to and including election day. I’m not breathing a sigh of relief until victory is declared, and even then, I wouldn’t be so sure.
Polls are garbage.
The mainstream professional polls have been reliable for some time. They typically get within 2-3pt margin of error when taken a few days before the election, and they serve as a useful bellweather to track public sentiment. In this case, it appears jettisoning Biden is bringing voters back to the Dem fold. That’s what Dems were banking on, and I’d consider it a good thing given how much I don’t want Trump to be President.
Vote like they don’t exist.
People who obsessively follow polling are the ones most likely to vote.
Polls were historically accurate in 2022 and generally do a good job of measuring the temperature. Still, vote like they don’t exist.
If I ever get into politics I’m running on abolishing vote intention polls.
By not being USian, or living in the USA?
My country only protects free-speech as long as it’s not anonymous.
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone’s vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone’s vote in Alaska.
Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.
And my vote in Oklahoma…oh fuck it who are we kidding lol. Meaningless. I still do it though.
In a similar situation. Theres a zero percent chance trump doesn’t win my state by at least 10 points. Still gonna vote though.
He’ll see the popular vote count and it will annoy him. He was mad about it even when he won!
This sub hates the following message. That’s why it comes today instead of yesterday.
Focus on loyalty to ideology, not party affiliation. Left ideology has been most consistently expressed by the Green Party platform (Sanders watered it down, twice). They’ve lots of problems. But, they’re incredibly loyal to the platform.
If the Green Party gets 5% of the general election vote then they’ll be on every ballot in '28. The Democrats can’t silence the platform choice in primaries as they did twice to Sanders. This would place an incredible amount of pressure on Democrats immediately and be passively sustained for four years.
In a purple state I’d vote Democrat POTUS for harm reduction. In a blue state it’d depend on the situation. But, in a red state, I risk absolutely nothing by not for voting harm reduction.
We’re the only ones completely free to act for the long term. The blue wave thinks we’re too stupid to understand nuance. Political parties don’t deserve your loyalty. We need be loyal to each other, especially when we’re hated for our choices.
Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation. With Tulsa and Oklahoma city it’s more progressive than most people realize. We’ve just got to get out and vote and convince those around us to do the same. I know we have the numbers to win local elections.
Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.
That said, Oklahoma’s awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to “GO VOTE!” when they’re getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn’t helping anyone, least of all the candidates they’re hoping will win.
This sub hates the following message. That’s why it comes today instead of yesterday.
Focus on loyalty to ideology, not party affiliation. Left ideology has been most consistently expressed by the Green Party platform (Sanders watered it down, twice). They’ve lots of problems. But, they’re incredibly loyal to the platform.
If the Green Party gets 5% of the general election vote then they’ll be on every ballot in '28. The Democrats can’t silence the platform choice in primaries as they did twice to Sanders. This would place an incredible amount of pressure on Democrats immediately and be passively sustained for four years.
In a purple state I’d vote Democrat POTUS for harm reduction. In a blue state it’d depend on the nuance of the situation. But, in a red state, I risk absolutely nothing by not for voting harm reduction.
We’re the only ones completely free to act for the long term. The blue wave thinks we’re too stupid to understand nuance. Political parties don’t deserve your loyalty. We need be loyal to each other, especially when we’re hated for our choices.
I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!
