53 points

You mean the media and pundits were wrong? Shocker.

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35 points
*

lol the people shielding him with their bodies, choosing to die for him, would be among the first to get fired if he were to win. along with every other single secret service in charge of the event that day

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20 points

Polls are bullshit anyway.

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0 points

Polls have been remarkably accurate in the last few election cycles.

The “polls are wrong” talking point is a convenient way for politicians to ignore the will of the people. Trump has done this for a long time, and recently Biden has taken up this practice to pretend that the “Real Americans” think he is fit to be president for another 4 years.

So please don’t repeat this talking point, or at least read a bit into historical accuracy of polls before you declare them bullshit.

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1 point

Polls being wrong claim is more about how election results seem to be different than poll results. Special elections points to that.

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2 points

Polls have a margin of error and election results have generally been within the 80% confidence interval 80% of the time.

It is true that when there are less polls (like in special elections) it’s harder to get an understanding of the state of the race.

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7 points

Guess I’m being overly optimistic thinking that Trump would be supported at all, let alone have a lead. Regardless of how shit a candidate Biden is, Trump is a fucking disgrace and a criminal among a whole other list of garbage. Appreciate you taking the time to call out my random comment on Lemmy.

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152 points

It’s reassuring if true, but Newsweek are a right-wing disinformation source. Perhaps they’re reporting this straight, or perhaps this is disinformation aimed at a specific goal. In any case, nothing from them should be taken at face value unless verified from a reputable source.

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58 points

Huh, I had assumed Newsweek was mostly left, but it looks like you’re correct:

Bias Rating: RIGHT-CENTER
Factual Reporting: MOSTLY FACTUAL
Country: USA
MBFC’s Country Freedom Rating: MOSTLY FREE
Media Type: Magazine
Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic
MBFC Credibility Rating: HIGH CREDIBILITY

I haven’t read it in over a decade though…

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/newsweek/

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31 points

FWIW, I had a subscription over a decade ago. I can’t say I ever thought of it as “Left”, it was at best, corporate center. But it definitely has gone more right as it has also gone more sensationalist. They partnered with Daily Beast for a while, and then were sold to IBT media, an international “news and Information” conglomerate. I think your memories are from the old hard journalism days, and they have gone back to corporate, but corporate-right.

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2 points

Yeah I member when newsweek would find an excuse to put Jesus’ face on the cover ever other week.

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1 point

Isn’t all corporate, right or center? This is maybe a me problem but I think of the Democrats as a center right party because of their policies regarding corporations.

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3 points

I could have sworn previously that maggot chuds used to call it NewsWeak. Guess new ownership had different plans

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3 points

Wow, yeah. I thought Newsweek was a staunchly centrist organization.

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3 points

Not shilling for them but I like ground news for the bias ratings.

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5 points

You can assume a right-center bias for almost any outlet, and I think mediabiasfactcheck needs to recalibrate, if we are being honest. See their assessment of NYT, as a for instance.

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53 points

It is disinformation. The data from the poll they are referencing was mostly completed before the assassination attempt: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive Link)

The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

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2 points

I’m guessing it’s too early for polls to actually tell. It comes around the same time as the RNC, so even if his numbers go up, it may be hard to tell what is responsible

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23 points
*

I believe, in this election, with two unfavorable candidates, everything is already baked in. There’s very little to move the needle at this point.

Biden screws the pooch during a debate? Polls still show him leading by a point or two, but within the margin of error. Trump gets nearly assassinated? Same, Biden leading by a not statistically significant number.

This election is going to be a squeaker, and we’re going to see unrest either way. We need a blowout to avoid that, and it’s not happening.

Edit: last poll I read had Biden leading. Either way doesn’t change what I said.

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19 points

Is Biden shown leading? I only see doom and gloom posted here. Agreed on the need for a blowout, though. We need to show the world we categorically denounce the far right, and that looks unlikely even if Biden wins.

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5 points

Biden is absolutely not leading. State polling has him behind in every swing state. Nate Silver’s model gives Biden a 30% chance of winning, slightly down from the debate.

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0 points

Unfortunately I see a 0% chance of Biden winning…

Democrats need polls to be overwhelmingly in their favor for us to just squeeze by. Being as low as we are should be taken as “we’re like 6x worse than what polls currently show.”

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