Statement dreamed up by the utterly deranged.
Biden should have dropped out in ‘23 and allowed for a real primary contest. Instead he and his neoliberal ilk shouted down anyone talking sense, and now his ego will cost America everything. Congrats Joe, you’ll go down in history after all.
Blame the left for everything. Swing so far right that we implement project 2025 before Trump even takes office. Win over all right wing voters. Biden wins again gg no re.
I’ll say it to I’m blue in the face:
Either party can guarantee victory by running literally anyone except Biden or trump.
*Obviously not Hillary tho
If Biden steps down, trump is toast if he stays.
If trump steps down, there goes Biden’s entire campaign.
Why are you so certain that people would instantly vote for a new candidate more than the incumbent president? I have only seen polls saying the exact opposite.
Regardless, time is ticking out. If a new candidate is gonna have time to build any sort of support or momentum, they need to get started yesterday and hit the ground running, the election is just getting closer.
I have only seen polls saying the exact opposite
An incumbent with what? A 34% approval rating?
Biden isn’t a normal incumbent he’s literally a historically unpopular incumbent…
And for months now polls have been showing a smaller gap between almost anyone else and trump.
Like, do you not understand this is Biden with the campaign and DNC behind him versus people who can’t even say they’re thinking about running yet?
You don’t think that would give them even a 5% boost?
There’s four months to go, that’s a long time to campaign. We’ve gotten used to these super campaigns but countries routinely hold them inside a couple months.
While the US campaign cycle is more extended than other countries’, even then the people who are going to be the main candidate for their respective parties (party leaders for example) are usually known well in advance and have managed to build up a reputation with their constituents before they even start campaigning. In this situation, you’d have to start way further back.
I’m not saying it’s the wrong way to go, but everyone should be aware that changing candidate to someone completely new this close to the election absolutely won’t be a cakewalk.
I’ve seen polling that says that Michelle Obama wins by like 20 points, but I’m not stupid enough to believe that polling.
There’s so much “not Trump” feeling in this country, but running a doddering octogenarian against him decreases those people willing to vote for “not Trump”. I’m absolutely voting for the Dem candidate, but I have some very real concerns about it.
Then name a name.
Who has that kind of charisma and name recognition, with no baggage, that they can storm in like the Koolaid man and take this election?
No? Yeah, I didn’t think so. You have been shitting on Biden every thread, even non-Biden related posts, for this entire election year and have never offered an alternative.
You’d have to be blind not to see the news articles dropping names for the past few weeks.
Whitmer
Newsom
Shapiro
Walz
Buttigieg
Generic Democrat
Even Harris polls better than Biden
Whitmer, Shaprio, Walz, Buttigieg all don’t have the nationwide name recognition needed to hit the ground running with so little time before elections.
Newsom only has name recognition because the Right has been demonizing him for years because they recognized him as a threat. We’d just have a repeat of Hillary.
I’m not saying that these wouldn’t make decent candidates in a normal Primary time frame. But it would spell disaster to pivot to any of these candidates this late in the race.
Hillary with Joe as VP, then in 2028 they’ll say it has to be Hillary again because for some reason no one under 70 has enough experience…
I just like reminding myself that it can always be worse.
I know Michelle Obama doesn’t want to run, but like, please Michelle? Would you think about it? Things are getting pretty desperate here. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/03/michelle-obama-would-beat-trump/74289680007/
If you really don’t want to do it, you could just win handily and then resign the first day and hand it off to someone else.
I’m also surprised at how much worse some Biden alternates do in the polling given people’s reported desire for a switch, but maybe in time they’d have a higher support ceiling than Biden as people get more familiar with them.
What a lot of news doesn’t report is the Undecided/Don’t Know category grows in lockstep with the drop in existing support for these other names. Trump’s support stays locked on at ~40-44 percent. So what’s really happening is a name brand gap. Some people just don’t know these other candidates and that’s easily solvable with four months and the DNC’s entire war chest.
That could certainly be the case, I was trying to get at that with the second part of the comment. I’ll link the poll below directly for people where that can be seen easier. I wish we had some more people who already could poll better though. I was also hoping that Trump’s support might drop some with some of the other choices though, with some moving to the not sure category when a different democrat was proposed. Unfortunately it was looking like the “not sure” people are mostly coming from the previously Biden category, with Trump staying locked in at 40 like he is with Biden, or even higher for some of them. Michelle Obama was the only to get that to drop, and only to 39%.
The “wouldn’t vote category” also dropped by a percent or 2 for some of them, so a few voters at least might be pulled of the sideline with a new candidate if they can manage to keep all the Biden voters. It was pretty impressive for Michelle Obama again, lowering from 8% to 4% not voting for the poll-takers in the case of Michelle Obama. She seems to pull her extra support over Biden from the current “won’t vote” and third party voters. Some of the other potentials also peeled off a percent or two from the third party voters too into the not sure category. These are the people that really need to be convinced if we’re going to beat Trump, and some of them at least seem to at least think about it when a new democrat is proposed.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/only-michelle-obama-bests-trump-alternative-biden-2024
The pro-trump crazies aren’t the majority of the Republican party anymore.
One of them literally just shot him a couple days ago in case you haven’t heard…
The pro-trump crazies aren’t the majority of the Republican party anymore.
this is an underappreciated truth, but they quite clearly control the party. the dems need to give a reason for a solid majority of people to get off their asses and vote - apparently the threat of a literal fucking fascist takeover isnt quite enough.
“I’m not trump!” is typical dem fantasy BS at this point. the maga crazies taste blood and are about to frenzy feed.
Who are they going to vote for? If Trump isn’t the Republican candidate, you think they would vote for a Democrat?
I mean I’m not going to not vote. Maybe I’m unusual, but I learned how to juggle being a nihilist without any hope with still doing the right thing a long time ago.
Look at the disapproval ratings. That will tell you who will win or lose.
Not really dude
The idea that “who doesn’t like Biden” is uncorrelated with “who answers the phone to random numbers”, or that who does answer the phone and answer the questions that suddenly emerge from the other side is perfectly correlated with who will show up and vote in November, both seem unproven to me
I see polls are unreliable again. Until someone says Biden should step down, then you have polling on alternate candidates that is the word of God Almighty.
Polling is archaic. It no longer works. People lie to pollsters now. Even exit polls are getting it wrong.
Arguments can be wrong in multiple ways
“The polls are not reliable, but even if they were, they don’t show what you say they show” is not two contradictory statements that invalidate one another
(There’s a whole separate issue that confounding factors make the polls bad metrics of the overall reality, but you can still look at relative difference within the same poll from week to week or candidate to candidate and it’s useful to a certain extent)
Pretty sure I have made both of those points multiple times in the last few days when talking about polling
Well problem is most of the polls are general popular opinion votes, but US presidential election is not a straight popular vote. As such the general “who majority of the nation like” doesn’t really matter. Secure states are secure, so you might as well not ask their opinion and leave them out of opinion poll. Focus even on voting district levels in states the use electors to elect the electors and so on.
Problem is such polls are really hard work… Almost no one does those and instead tries to read tea leaves out of general opinion polls. Polls which simply don’t have the granularity of data to make conclusions. You need to ask “what is mood in this swing district in this swing state”. After you have first added up the secure states, well with some looking of “are our old estimates of what are secure states for blue or red correct”. Not that opinion wise all states aren’t purple, but as far as election system results go there absolutely is blue and red states.
As I understand even in USA maybe one of two whole nation granular polls are done, with the actual amount of data to actually conclude how the actual electoral votes split. Given as said, since in some cases it isn’t “you have to go down to state by state”. Nope “we have to go district by district since this state has weirdo way of electing electors or adding up the totals.”
The worst part is cognitive decline is real. We’re seeing it.
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Trump and Biden are only 3 years apart.
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3 years.
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The difference is, Joe surrounds himself with competence. He picked a VP who wouldn’t make a terrible President. He also doesn’t have shitty impulses to play with big government military toys at baseline that he’s falling back on right now.
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Can we say the same for Trump? What does his less competent more impulsive at baseline ass do in full cognitive decline?
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And yet we’re sitting in this geriatric hole. With a China-Russia-Korea alliance looming, plus whatever the fuck is happening on the daily in the Middle East. Our neighbors are cool, thankfully, but conflict doesn’t need to be neighbor based or on the same continent these days. Yea, we have shit in our own house and it stinks, but the rest of the globe isn’t going to stop existing while we fight it out.
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Complacency and inertia are scary. And that’s what’s been running the DNC for years.
Biden is being selfish period. If it is about the team, then why Biden. Biden gets on television saying only he can do it. That he is the only one that can beat Trump. If he is the CEO of the Democrats, then they can change the CEO and keep the same employees.
He already did it once. And he’s done a pretty good job as president, though the media doesn’t really cover this fact. I think he can do it again.
He’s done okay for someone who has compromised with Republicans to give them concessions in order to get legislation passed. His stance on Israel has been detrimental to his campaign. He’s taken on some easy wins like marijuana reclassification. There is a lot of issues with current legislation that hurts middle-class workers still that he hasn’t done anything about. People face these issues regularly in the workforce, which doesn’t build trust. He hasn’t done enough to ensure a win against Trump, and the polls show that.
You’re not wrong.
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This is what complacency and inertia gets us, this horror show where we all need a good scream and cry. RBG was a Queen right up until she banked on waiting for Hillary before retirement. I get it, wanting the first female President to a point her replacement, but she fucked up, miscalculated. Even the best of us fucks up, and Joe isn’t firing on all cylinders any more. Expecting him to think as well as either of us, going forward, would be a mistake.
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Jon Stewart podcast it was brought up that white male establishment guys like Joe probably arent capable of just handing power to a black woman. I mean, historically in America, how often have we seen that, if ever? Again, inertia rules the day.
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A lot of things should happen, but inertia rules people. Some people go their entire lives and then die without ever really moving outside of the inertial force of their own little existence. DNC has exponential momentum gathered on its inertia, its like, oh shit, I just had an image of The Boys pop into my head, the scene where Hughie’s GF is killed by A-Train. Can the DNC stop? They’ve been running on this lazy momentum for a while now.
Jon Stewart podcast it was brought up that white male establishment guys like Joe probably arent capable of just handing power to a black woman.
He was vp to a Black President, what kind of idiocy is this?
Biden said that 50 other democrats could beat trump. I believe him and i don’t even know who he is talking about.
