Look at the disapproval ratings. That will tell you who will win or lose.
Not really dude
The idea that “who doesn’t like Biden” is uncorrelated with “who answers the phone to random numbers”, or that who does answer the phone and answer the questions that suddenly emerge from the other side is perfectly correlated with who will show up and vote in November, both seem unproven to me
I see polls are unreliable again. Until someone says Biden should step down, then you have polling on alternate candidates that is the word of God Almighty.
Arguments can be wrong in multiple ways
“The polls are not reliable, but even if they were, they don’t show what you say they show” is not two contradictory statements that invalidate one another
(There’s a whole separate issue that confounding factors make the polls bad metrics of the overall reality, but you can still look at relative difference within the same poll from week to week or candidate to candidate and it’s useful to a certain extent)
Pretty sure I have made both of those points multiple times in the last few days when talking about polling
Well problem is most of the polls are general popular opinion votes, but US presidential election is not a straight popular vote. As such the general “who majority of the nation like” doesn’t really matter. Secure states are secure, so you might as well not ask their opinion and leave them out of opinion poll. Focus even on voting district levels in states the use electors to elect the electors and so on.
Problem is such polls are really hard work… Almost no one does those and instead tries to read tea leaves out of general opinion polls. Polls which simply don’t have the granularity of data to make conclusions. You need to ask “what is mood in this swing district in this swing state”. After you have first added up the secure states, well with some looking of “are our old estimates of what are secure states for blue or red correct”. Not that opinion wise all states aren’t purple, but as far as election system results go there absolutely is blue and red states.
As I understand even in USA maybe one of two whole nation granular polls are done, with the actual amount of data to actually conclude how the actual electoral votes split. Given as said, since in some cases it isn’t “you have to go down to state by state”. Nope “we have to go district by district since this state has weirdo way of electing electors or adding up the totals.”
Polling is archaic. It no longer works. People lie to pollsters now. Even exit polls are getting it wrong.
