P(she only has a facial paralysis)
Alternatively
P(she smiles at you| she likes you) but…
Nice, we can also assume that P(she smiles at you | she likes you) is approximately 1, simplifying to only 2 variables, and also substitute P(you are likable) for P(she likes you) to remove all unknowns.
and also substitute P(you are likable) for P(she likes you)
That seems like a pretty wild leap of logic. Being likeable in general isn’t a substitute for a specific person liking you. Though there’s probably a correlation related to your overall “likeability score”.
So lowest denominator possible (rarely smiles)?
unfortunately, P(she likes you) ≈ 0
Damn you priors