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Nice, we can also assume that P(she smiles at you | she likes you) is approximately 1, simplifying to only 2 variables, and also substitute P(you are likable) for P(she likes you) to remove all unknowns.
10 points
and also substitute P(you are likable) for P(she likes you)
That seems like a pretty wild leap of logic. Being likeable in general isn’t a substitute for a specific person liking you. Though there’s probably a correlation related to your overall “likeability score”.
2 points
