Here’s hoping Trump pulls a Biden tomorrow.
Sad about JEJ. But maybe a rule of 3s that takes out Trump wouldn’t be the worst outcome.
The problem was that Biden was actually trying to say something complicated and he got tripped up. Trump has always spoken at a kindergarten level because he knows he has nothing to say.
Sure. He did get tripped up though, and he end Ed up looking like an idiot. That said, it was for the best. Harris is an infinitely better candidate.
Just a reminder to not be complacent.
Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information? This is by far the highest number I’ve seen for Trump so far.
Hey man there is a mountain of people who don’t know things and are scared to ask. learning is always a good thing
Social media isn’t a search engine. If an article is referring to someone by name in the title, they almost certainly have a Wikipedia page the questioner could read rather than requesting random strangers on a message board provide answers for them (in the form of multiple answers of varying bias and accuracy).
Wanting to learn isn’t the problem, it’s not spending the tiniest bit of personal effort before requesting service from other people.
Their models have been really accurate for the last several election cycles. They’re part of fivethirtyeight.com
No, Nate is not part of 538 anymore. He now works for a crypto betting website partly owned by Peter Thiel.
I’ll let you decide how neutral that makes him.
Peter Thiel, the same guy who sold Republicans on JD the couch fucker Vance
Nate is not with 538 anymore. Disney didn’t renew his contract. However, he got to keep the model that he developed and publishes it for his newsletter subscribers. 538 had to rebuild their model from scratch this year with G Elliot Morris.
Now Nate hosts the podcast Risky Business with Maria Konnikova. The psychologist who became a professional poker player while researching a book. It’s pretty good.
He’s quite a well known pollster. Up until recently he was responsible for Five Thirty Eight, but it got sold and he left.
He got the 2016 election wrong (71 Hilary, 28 trump) He got the 2020 election right (89 Biden, 10 Trump)
Right and wrong are the incorrect terms here, but you get what I mean.
He didn’t get it wrong. He said the Clinton Trump election was a tight horse race, and Trump had one side of a four sided die.
The state by state data wasn’t far off.
Problem is, people don’t understand statistics.
If someone said Trump had over a 50% probability of winning in 2016, would that be wrong?
Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.
He’s just a guy analizing the polls. The source is Fox News. He mentions in the article that tomorrow’s debate could make that poll not matter.
Should you trust Nate or polls? They’re fun but… Who is answering these polls? Who wants to answer them before even October?
So yeah take it seriously that a poll found that a lot of support for Trump exists. But it’s just a moment of time for whoever they polled. Tomorrow’s response will be a much better indication of any momentum.
It just seems strange because I don’t think that many people are on the fence. Perhaps I’m crazy, but I feel most people know exactly who they’re voting for already. Makes me wonder how valid this cross-section was that was used as the sample set. If it accurately represents the US, including undecided voters, then… 😮
I listen to those news things that interview people on the street and I’m amazed at how many are uninformed and can go either way.
The issue isn’t really people on the fence for Trump or Harris but mainly with generating turnout. After Biden’s poor debate performance, people didn’t change their mind and decide to vote for Trump, they became apathetic and maybe wouldn’t show up to vote.
Harris doesn’t need to persuade people to abandon Trump, she needs to get people excited to show up to vote.
The key to doing statistics well is to make sure you aren’t changing the results with any bias. This means enough samples, a good selection of samples, and weighing the outcome correctly. Even honest polling in pre-election is hard to get right, and because of that it’s easy to make things lean towards results if you want to get certain results, or or getting paid to get those results.
There’s only one poll that matters, and that poll should include as large of a sample as possible, and be counted correctly. Even though some will try to prevent that from happening.
He works for Peter Theil now, so I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt.
Because Peter Thiel is a right-wing billionaire piece of shit whose little bitch boy is J. D. Vance.
This isn’t a poll. That’s why the number is so high. His model is also automatically depressing Harris’ numbers because of the convention right now. (It did the same thing to Trump after his convention)
Nate has been upfront in his newsletters about the factor dropping off the model after today, but then it’s also the debate. Things are likely to be far more clear going into the weekend because we’ll have post debate polling being published and no more convention adjustments.
This quote sums it up:
In the future we won’t elect presidents. We’ll have a primary, then Nate Silver will go into a spice trance and pick the winner.
That used to be true, but in recent years he has gotten a lot more conservative, so I personally take his predictions with a huge grain of salt.
It’s a chance of winning, not a poll, so 64% is high but not insane. Silver is serious and it’s a decent model. Knowing the model there’s a pretty good chance this is a high point for Trump but it’s not like he’s pulling this out of nowhere, he has had similar models every election cycle since like 2008.
If it’s overstaying Trump it’s because his model is interpreting the data incorrectly because of the weirdness of this election cycle. I personally think that is likely the case here.
Abolish the Electoral Collage.
Or Electoral College even.
I would like to see what an Electoral Collage looks like.
That ain’t gonna happen.
That said, we can make it irrelevant with The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It’s 77% the way there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
I love the concept of it, but the thing about the NPVIC is that it’s 0% of the way there until it’s 100% of the way there. So while 77% seems like we’re close, and there is legislation pending that could get us to 95%, the only reason it seems to be going forward steadily is that it does nothing unless you go all the way.
The moment there is the prospect of legislation in a state that would get that last 5%, not only will that legislation be fought tooth and nail, but every state that has already entered the compact will have to fight like hell to keep it in place, not once but constantly forever. Because if you’re just over the threshold then almost any state backing out of the compact will nullify the whole thing again.
It seems too fragile to be a workable solution. But I guess I don’t see anything wrong with trying!
Many states will be incentivized to keep the compact passes because it means the election stops focusing on a handful of swing states.
Every presidential campaign will have to adopt a 50 state strategy, meaning a lot of states will receive political attention they never get because they aren’t swing states.
The legislation has to all-or-nothing precisely because of the effect on political attention. If a state awarded its delegates by national popular vote before the magic 270 was reached then politicians can win that state by maximizing their votes in other states so they would be incentivised to put more focus on the states that aren’t signed up if they expect to win the popular vote, reducing the political attention paid to signatories.
When the 270 mark is passed, it has the effect of making every vote equal everywhere.
His older model at 538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/
Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.
Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election
Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.
