Actually, Silver says it’s basically a toss up.
Turn out, bring your friends, and if you see some voter suppression bullshit, call it out.
None of us should ever take these seriously. We need to encourage people to vote as though our lives depend on it (because, in some ways, they do)
Fox News hasn’t had time to thoroughly work her over yet.
I’m hoping they need literal years to get their machine oriented on her. People forget Fox news worked on Clinton for 24 years before she ran for President.
oh I’m sure they’ll find an email server, laptop, or some other bullshit to whine about.
I thought everyone hated and didnt trust Nate Silver? Or was that because of cult of personality politics?
Well I’m sure the trans people who would be forced to detransition, the climate refugees forced to flee their homes, the women forced into dangerous pregnancies, the Palestinians who will receive even less support from the US, and the people of Ukraine forced to live under Russian occupation without our support will obviously agree that it’s most important for you to have a clear conscience here.
Hate to break this to you, but it’s pretty much guaranteed one of those two options will win. The voting system sucks but it is what we have.
Silver has increasingly followed the money and begun leaning further and further to the right
Nate Silver’s polling has been wrong before and it will be wrong again.
He’s wrong very frequently. He had a couple amazing parlays and people think he has some special sauce.
People who say this don’t ever really back this up. Nate Silver has pretty consistently maintained >90% accuracy across not just presidential races but primaries, gubernatorial, and congressional races. Ultimately thousands of races. Remember, he his probability != a prediction. Just because someone has 70-30 odds doesn’t mean they win 100% of the time. It means if that race was run 100,000 times, 30,000 times would be a loss. Accuracy can be determined by grouping a sample of such 70-30 races to see if they follow that trend. Lo and behold, Nate’s algorithm generally does.
Obviously events change and predictions cannot rapidly factor in, say, Comey’s October Surprise…but in this era of absurdity, I’m not sure we really have any more shocking surprises that can top what we’ve already seen and know.
These are good markers to see how messaging and strategy for each side is working and whether a change needs to happen. It should have zero bearing on voting which everyone should do whether you’re winning in a landslide or not.
