The bottom hits when all (or most) of the bad news is on the table. People know what’s happening and what the future looks like. It doesn’t happen when the pain is gone, just when people know what that pain will look like for the foreseeable future. For example, in 2022 the bottom happened when rate increases started to slow down, not when they stopped completely, just when inflation was starting to level off and we dropped from .75pt hikes to .5pt and people could see a path forward.

We are not at that point yet in the current crash, nobody has any idea how bad it’s going to get, none of the indicators show the problems yet because they’re all lagging, and consumers haven’t been hit yet by the high prices and supply chain crashes because manufacturers and retailers are still running off of back stock.

I could be wrong of course, but I don’t think I am.