Archive link here https://archive.is/kJlQW
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.
The Taiwan government isn’t trying to unify the “two Chinas” anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what’s left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There’s other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.
This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear’s own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven’t, they likely won’t, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don’t know them.
Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?
Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.
First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."
spoiler
Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn’t look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that’s not the topic of this comment.^
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dy437pdno
For the PLA there’s an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the “threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan”
Much like how politicians aren’t often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments
Note these exercises are from a year ago and you’ll see a long history of such actions if you look for them https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-plas-strategic-deterrence-a-case-study-of-the-april-2023-exercises-toward-taiwan/
https://news.usni.org/2023/10/31/chinese-military-corruption-wont-slow-pla-expansion-panel-says
I didn’t think about that - I can see Taiwans benefit as a bargaining chip.
China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade
Do you have sources that backs up that claim? Just because they didn’t do so in a sabre rattling exercise doesn’t mean they can’t. Afaik their navy is actually quite capable, and actually it’s the largest in the world by number of vessels.
The sources are in my original post.
Basically it boils down to the US Navy has been built up to directly interidict, challenge, and if need be destroy Chinese vessels. The US Navy is and has been intentionally building naval forces to counteract Chinese naval practices and doctrine. Numbers in naval battles aren’t really all that important. Now it’s mostly down to sigint, jamming, and other interuptive measures.
Pages 51 and 52 will be of direct interest to my point https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153/280
I can’t find a source that backs up your claim that the Navy can’t blockade Taiwan, can you point it out?
And even if you get a beach head there(on the West side), it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains.
Idk much about Taiwanese coastline, but your wiki article states:
The terrain in Taiwan is divided into two parts: the flat to gently rolling plains in the west, where 90% of the population lives, and the mostly rugged forest-covered mountains in the eastern two-thirds.
Yeah beach is heavily defended on the west side. Over watching those beaches are cliffs, behind those cliffs are mountains. The east side of the island, facing away from the PRC is just all mountains.
US SOF have trained Taiwanese forces to basically evac as many folk as possible and for the Taiwanese army to take up fighting positions in the mountains.
Look to Afghanistan or Switzerland or Vietnam to see how that tends to work out for the invading forces.
There’s a map in that link that shows the terrain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-green-berets-explain-how-they-train-taiwan-troops-2021-10?op=1
Note take special care when researching this as the Taiwanese minister of defense was misquoted earlier this week. Taiwan still only hosts rotating SOF when PLA exercises are active and the US and Taiwan have their joint training/exercises. There is not and hopefully will not be a permanent US base on Taiwan.
I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.
I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.
But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.
All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.
My response was targeted against the Hellfire against a Chinese Invasion referenced in the orginal article, so that was absolutely militarily driven and focused.
However the one thing the dictatorship of Xi can do is have a long form plan of unified direction and consistent rhetoric. That’s something the US has been incapable of the last 12 years unfortunately.
So yes, China is much better at looking at economic targets and wielding soft power. If Taiwan does fall, it’ll be diplomatically, with very if any military intervention. I believe the law you’re referencing came out of the CCP Central Committee Sixth Plenum referenced below.
However I would also look at the CCP’s 2030 plan and recent military purges as direct support for a military response to be essentially posturing, for now.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan
Thank you for explaining you know nothing about geopolitics right at the start.
- China has an old ideological incentive
- Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
- China wants TSMC ** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a “if we can’t have it, nobody can” strategy
- China doesn’t want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
- China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone ** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China
You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion–I would tend to agree–but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.
Explain the comment on racism? Pooh Bear is not anti sino to my knowledge
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Winnie-the-Pooh_in_China
Let me know if that link doesn’t work for you. 🧸😗
I don’t know if this is what they’re talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there’s the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Wouldn’t the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there’s continuity from the former china government to Taiwan’s, the people’s republic is the newest entity.
You expect people just believe that shit? Damn. Impressively wrong on both sides of the analogy.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Yeah that’s a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you’re right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan.
I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future
The missile engines were being used to heat up pot noodle on cold days, so I completely understand the motivation of those remote PLA Airman
To a more serious point, likely as not they’ll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn’t approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
There are rumors that Xi has been overthrown and is now only a figurehead.
I believe those have been debunked if I’m inferring that you’re referencing the most recent of such rumors.
Let me know if that’s not what you heard as I’m happy to be corrected.
Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade until it actually happened
Pasted from my response to another post
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
