Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven’t, they likely won’t, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don’t know them.
Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?
Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.
First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."
spoiler
Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn’t look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that’s not the topic of this comment.^
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dy437pdno
For the PLA there’s an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the “threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan”
Much like how politicians aren’t often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments
Note these exercises are from a year ago and you’ll see a long history of such actions if you look for them https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-plas-strategic-deterrence-a-case-study-of-the-april-2023-exercises-toward-taiwan/
https://news.usni.org/2023/10/31/chinese-military-corruption-wont-slow-pla-expansion-panel-says
I didn’t think about that - I can see Taiwans benefit as a bargaining chip.
Yeah, as far as PRC external communications go, it’s usually 50/50 if they mean the exact opposite of what they’re saying. It’s a very very very complicated situation, however China gains a lot more from a separate Taiwan with a nebulous international status. The US and to a smaller extent Japan and the EU both benefit from a threatened Taiwan as well actually, as it is likely suppressing the price of TSMC.
https://www.ft.com/content/b452221a-5a82-4f5d-9687-093b9707e261
The US could do a lot for Taiwan if they were to have a unified and consistent message on the diplomatic status in Taipei. That would take away a lot of the grey area and would force China to present a direct and clear response. However that’s not in the best interests of American business who rely on cheap and exploitative labor in mainland China, and well as Smedley said, War is a Racket.
