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I personally lie to pollsters because ALL polls are push polls. I can’t be the only one who feels this way. So tired of being a useful idiot, so I try to be less useful.
Go down to the district level and it’s a different story.
Not entirely. A few months ago AOC was discussing how her own internal polling of her own district ended up under-estimating her support by around 10 percentage points. It was in that hour long talk she gave explaining why she was still supporting Biden as the candidate, before he dropped out.
Polling has always been tricky, but I think in the past decade its gotten nigh-impossible. These institutions now seem to be more focused on not losing their jobs than actually trying to gauge support for a politician.
Makes me wonder if issue polling instead of politician polling is better. I imagine it probably is a little bit, but I’m not sure.
District polls of PA-07, -08, and -10 suggesting either a 2020 redux or better.
State polls show a tie.
Which is right? Both?
This article has to do with pollseters herding to results. They are making the same assumptions. District level polls is one proof.
The problem with polls is they try to determine who is or is not a “likely voter”.
Look at the polling out of PA, check the left hand column here, 22 polls, 18 are “LV” or likely voter, as opposed to RV or registered voter.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
In most cases, one of the criteria for “likely” is “did you vote in the last election?”
So, um, yeah, about that…
https://www.bernama.com/en/world/news.php?id=2358865
Those 100,000 new voters would have been discounted by pollsters as unlikely because they did not vote in 2020.
That doesn’t even take into account kids who turned 18 since the last election.
Another problem with polls is that the poll takers were off the mark in both of the last two elections, generally towards the Democratic side. So some of them compensate not by modifying their methodology, but by goosing the numbers by the same amount in the other direction this time around. They might say “Hey, we underestimated the guy by 2% in this state last time, so let’s give him a 2% mulligan”.
If you know polling is an inexact science, and you were wrong consistently in one direction twice in a row, it is better for your reputation if you are off in the other direction this time.
