My gut says Trump is going to win. And I think the voter intimidation, fraud, right-wing takeover of election boards and volunteers, legislation and laws, republican rapid-response lawyers and staff ready to bring multiple suits, and SCOTUS already making a decision to anoint themselves as who determines the winner of the race is what locks it.
Polls are basically a coin flip before you figure in the above, because you can’t model that in a poll. Polls assume that voters that intend to vote will vote and can vote, their vote will be counted, the results will be accurately counted, the results will be accurately reported, and the results will be certified.
Since none of that is secure, there is, in my opinion, a ~3% Trump advantage in battleground states. If I’m right, that basically seals it.
Your gut is wrong. Every election since Rowe has been overturned has skewed HEAVILY in favor of pro-Democrat tickets and issues. I have no idea where you got this invisible percentage from 🤣
I know you’re a troll at heart. But Trump is unkind, untruthful, unqualified, and unhealthy. He doesn’t want to be president, he wants to be the boss. He is an unscrupulous grifter, all he’s ever done is sell. Steaks, real estate, golden shoes, golden watches, very likely state secrets, definitely political favors. He is an unrepentant rapist, and misogynist. He is a phony Christian. He is a mercenary, power hungry, counterpunching, farce artist. There is absolutely no pragmatic reason to vote for him unless he knows you personally, and even then, it’s a real coin toss.
What’s better about his policies that you think are better than Harris’s?
I have been saying ever since last year that Michigan is gonna be red this season and it’s gonna be an election day “surprise” just like with Clinton because surprise surprise the polls and primary predictions were off by a full +5%.
Why in the actual f**** would the region most known for an American Arab population with direct family ties to Gaza and especially Lebanon (every since the 70s) willingly vote for Harris after literally getting to see Biden’s governemnt kill their family members in real time over the course of a year. It is the HQ of the uncommitted movement which was refused any sort of demand for change on Gaza/Israel policy during the DNC rally.
Forget utilitarianism, they didn’t even vote for Hillary because of her antics as Secretary of State under Obama. I’m pretty sure genocide is not a smaller issue.
And that’s just Detroit by itself. Ann Arbor was just a constant 9 months of student protests with police arrests on Umich which is the so called liberal capital campus of the USA.
Even all this UAW and Union shilling isn’t worth jack shit, most of those workers are from Detroit and will happily ignore party leader voting recommendations. It has even been an old recurring joke that every candidate passing though goes directly to one of the big 3 Auto OEMs to get a monkey crowd of factory workers for PR.
Harris can still win without Michigan, but they have already decided that there is no need to focus on the uncommitted vote because they believe they don’t need it, or are willing to actually lose over it.
Hilariously, I do think Whitmer and the state level democrats will do just fine.
They saw the Trump government do the same + Trump recognizing Jerusalem as the sole capital of Israel as well. Not to mention Trump is extremely pro Israel too.
Of course, I never underestimate the stupidity of American right wing voters, so yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan turns red too.
They aren’t voting for Trump, though. The Muslim-American voterbase is largely moving to Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Claudia De La Crúz. It isn’t due to stupidity, it’s because they won’t vote for genocide of Muslims, many of whom have family in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, etc. The Democrats refusing to acknowledge this could legitimately cost Harris the election.
Voting for a 3rd party candidate in the presidential election, especially this one, when they’ve all but disappeared until it was time ago start running again is a dictionary definition of “due to stupidity”.
Maybe if you didn’t alienate the largest Arab population in the country by insisting on actively participating in the Israeli genocide, Michigan wouldn’t be so fucking close! 🤬
What do you think it is, then? You think people there are labbing up the GOP bullshit?
I’d say that alienating a shitload of potential voters would be pretty damn significant regardless.
Far more people than required to sway a close election are opposed to genocide and the US participation in same
If that group would rather burn down their own lives by getting Trump elected to prove an idiotic point, more power to 'em I guess. The population numbers still don’t swing the election though.
That any candidate running against Trump could possibly be a close race really is a knife to my faith-in-humanity’s liver, and that fucker’s been in critical condition since before Trump. What the fuck is wrong with us? We’ve already seen this geriatric Hitler wanna-be in action once already, and just about half of the voters looked at that dumpster fire and decided they want more?
He could be running against a literal cockroach, and that roach should win in a landslide because it isn’t god-damned Trump.
Obama handed him such a healthy economy that survived many of his dumbass attempts at fucking it up. Imagine if we’d had a smart person on it. Ugh.
And then immediately tried to take credit for the healthy economy, totally fucked up every attempt at a covid response which literally tanked the economy and every single dipshit blames it all on Biden.
Why is it the last 2 Dems who took office seemed to inherit an absolute economic shit show from the previous repub …
