So the model image you posted above there says it’s more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it’s less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren’t poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.
A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.
A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.
The constant attacks on how 538’s model performed in 2016 says more about statistics literacy than it does about the model.
There is plenty to criticize Nate Silver for. Take your pick. Personally, the political nihilism that’s increasingly flirted with “anti-woke” sentiment is good enough for me. Some people might prefer taking issue with the degenerate gambling. The guy has pumped out plenty of really dumb hot takes over the years, so you have your options.
But his models, historically, have performed relatively well if you understand that they’re models and not absolute predictors.
People forget that Clinton lost because of Comey’s October revelation that the FBI was reopening the investigation into her emails.
I agree with your take on the old 538 model, but if you read Nate’s new substack it become pretty clear that he’s been ‘captured’. Almost all of his post seem to fairly anti-Harris in their biases and it feels like all of his writings are really meant for one person, that person being the owner of Polymarket who he has a very large consulting contract. What these biases are doing to the Model I don’t know but the new model at 538 which was built from the ground up by other statisticians consistently trends about 10-20% higher odds for Harris taking the election.
Looking at the historical election wins where president with lower popular vote won, trump clearly is outlier and either had outrageous luck (I doubt it) or help to push things just enough to get enough EC votes.
Of course this help, that he got in 2016 he still is getting right now so we should still assume odds will be in his favor and make won’t get suspended and vote (the more people vote, the harder is to artificially affect the results).
I think Silver. Nate left FiveThirtyEight and now the site doesn’t even publish any kind of predictive model.
I keep trying to reframe it to people that I am happy to spend an extra $2 on a tank of gas if it means not having a convicted rapist who sows division and hate as a role model for my 12 year old niece.
And then add in that I’m an international buyer and can confirm EVERYONE globally is paying more since COVID. And tariffs ARE passed on to the consumer.
I’ve slowed down my own postings and now responding to my conservative friends political posts, hoping it gets to more of those people.
Sorry to focus on this point but gas is subject to a fairly fluid global market. I’ve been driving a car since Clinton and have never noticed Republicans being better for gas prices or the price of anything, if anything it’s the opposite.
The President can do a lot of macro things that affect oil supply, like exercising some control over leases in public land, choosing to regulate or deregulate fracking, or invading a foreign country to obtain more oil.
In a more micro scale the President has fairly direct control over the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and can decide when to release and when to replenish.
Why are we looking to a Newsweek article about Nate’s blog, instead of the blog post directly?
Last update: 9:30 a.m., Friday, September 20. The theme of the week remains mostly strong state polls for Kamala Harris, like this batch from Morning Consult, which helped her even though Morning Consult has consistently shown some of her better numbers.
Indeed, today marks the 3rd time so far in the election that the streams have crossed in the forecast — Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up and that will happen a lot when the forecast is so close to 50/50.
Note that these margins are still razor thin. Voter turnout (and related factors) will be absolutely critical to the final results.
Meanwhile in republican planning… how can we cause enough delay to trigger a contingent election?
I have full confidence she’ll win the votes necessary. I have less confidence in GOP and MAGA operatives not pulling out all the stops to ensure Trump wins on a technicality. They WILL attempt a steal!
If Trump wins, would you accept the results of the presidential election?
