Harris has enlarged the map. Trump has not, so for him it’s a must win state. Pennsylvania is a ground game state and early call being in the eastern t8me zone. You see Trump lose there, it’s a tell to the whole election
Pennsylvania resident here. It’s not an early call. In 2020 the state wasn’t called until Friday iirc. Pennsylvania doesn’t start counting mail in ballots until election day and in most places doesn’t start counting them until the direct polling is turned in.
This is because prior to the last election we had for-cause mail-in voting only and the number of mail-in ballots was always too small to affect the outcome. The counting law hasn’t caught up with the realities of at-will mail-in voting. Granted, local elections boards are more prepared than they were so it should go faster than 2020 but you should abandon the idea of knowing who won Pennsylvania before you got to bed on Tuesday, unless Harris is already way ahead.
The margin of this election will almost certainly be smaller than the number of outstanding mail-in ballots. That means we’ll have to wait for them to be counted just like 2020. Also mail in ballots heavily favor Dems, so in any close race you should expect Trump to be well ahead on Tuesday night and slowly lose ground as the mail-in tallies come in.
The other part of this that absolutely everyone should be aware of is there is a real problem with the current mail-in process in Pennsylvania regarding ballot curing. There are a bunch of rules about how ballots must be mailed in (signatures placement/quality date placement/formatting, envelope types, etc) and how to handle improperly submitted ballots is mostly being left to local elections boards. That means some of them are offering ballot curing, where you can go and fix the issue and have your vote counted, some of them are simply counting the ballots without regard to minor clerical issues, and some of them are throwing out every mail-in for even the slightest technical violation. There are already lawsuits by Republicans trying to establish a precedent that forces all counties into the latter group. State courts have taken a dim view of this position—opting to protect curing and the franchise, but the local federal appeals court has just ruled in the Republicans favor this week, asserting counties are within their rights to discard ballots for minor defects.
This is a bomb waiting to go off and there is a very real chance we’re going to reach a point where Pennsylvania’s electoral votes are going to be handed to a candidate by a court choosing which mail-in votes count and which don’t. There is also a very real chance that SCOPA and SCOTUS both issue rulings with opposing answers.
How in the hell is this race so close? If misinformation were factored out, would it be close at all?
One thing to have to know about conservatives is that they value fairness over everything else. That thought gets twisted to be “if I had to suffer then everyone else should have to suffer too.” They don’t vote Trump because they like his policies. They vote because they think he’ll cause others to suffer.
Total ad spend so far by both parties comes to $16.61 per person in the state. DAMN.
So I do run an adblocker for most of the web on most of my devices, but the TV for example still plays youtube ads and I would say that maybe 1 out of every 3 or 4 ads is not a political ad. Well over half of the ones that are political are for Trump. I’ve also received at least one mailer every day this week. Usually 2-3 (one for each of my wife and I). All of the mailers are pro Trump. Yes, I let the TV play trash politics adjacent videos on mute trying to waste as much of their money as possible.
Wow. That’s fascinating, thanks for the details. Interesting that you’re mostly seeing pro-Trump stuff as from the article the dems are outspending the Trump campaign.
I live in small blue town in very red county, and I’m probably not being distinguished from the surrounding area. A lot of it is in the ‘motivating you to show up’ category. At least it would be if I actually believed Bob Casey was holding down Pennsylvanians while Harris injected them with fentanyl smuggled over the border in a sack of illegal aliens.
What’s more, this person said there aren’t regrets over Biden leaving the race. This person said they could’ve been convinced before the switch at the top of the ticket that Biden was better positioned to win Pennsylvania but since seeing the explosion of Democratic enthusiasm they said: “I think we’d all agree it has been a net positive.”
It’s concerning that so many people still don’t understand why voters didn’t want Biden, or even that voters didn’t want Biden.
It’s not just enough to vote D every four years, the only political party large enough to fight facisism, is completely out of touch with it’s voters…
So like…
Maybe we should replace them with people who know what the fuck they’re doing?
Maybe start putting some sociologists in charge rather than who has the best connection to donors and ignoring literally everything else?
And private funding (and specifically, undisclosed funding) of any candidate should be extremely illegal. But the Supreme Court (and the ACLU, incredibly) is behind Citizens United, so that’s not changing for the foreseeable future.
The ACLU is behind it because there are unintended consequences to getting rid of it.
For example, Florida could pass a law that bans pro-choice advertising from women’s rights groups while still allowing ads from anti-abortion groups.
The only reason they can’t do that today is that pro-choice organizations have First Amendment rights.
There is a misconception that without CU corporations wouldn’t influence elections. But actually without it, politicians could choose which corporations are, or are not, allowed to influence elections.
Remind me to never go to Pennsylvania.
