Ukraine wants permission from the west to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles to destroy targets deep inside Russia, believing this could force Moscow into negotiating an end to the fighting.
Senior figures in Kyiv have suggested that using the Anglo-French weapons in a “demonstration attack” will show the Kremlin that military sites near the capital itself could be vulnerable to direct strikes.
The thinking, according to a senior government official, is that Russia will consider negotiating only if it believes Ukraine had the ability “to threaten Moscow and St Petersburg”. This is a high-risk strategy, however, and does not so far have the support of the US.
Ukraine has been lobbying for months to be allowed to use Storm Shadow against targets inside Russia, but with little success. Nevertheless, as its army struggles on the eastern front, there is a growing belief that its best hope lies in counter-attack.
Do it now, ask forgiveness later. It’s the American way.
I assume the risk is if they do strike without approval, the critical support they’re receiving could end
Might be the American way, but it’s mainly Europe that will take the heat in an all out war against Russia.
Also, how does it end? Anyone really thinks Putin will surrender after 3-4 missiles hit Moscow? Come on.
The message wouldn’t be to Putin directly. It would be to those both in his power base, or capable of disrupting it.
The goal would be to push Russians to the point they deal with Putin internally, and/or put putin in a position where he needs to end the war to stabilise his own position. It’s all about making the right people feel the effects.
Oh, and as a European, I think the risk is acceptable. If Putin struck at a NATO country, the results would likely be swift and short. The only unknown would be Russian nukes, and even those are far more of an unknown than most people think.
An all out war is unlikely, since if NATO involvement was going to kick that off it would have done so by now.
The next point of escalation that could start something bigger would be stuff like NATO openly sending troops or actively providing fire support.
US hesitation to allow our hardware to be used for this type of attack is much more to do with the political issues surrounding the war being framed as a proxy war instead of defensive support.
The electorates support for “saving the day” and “superior US hardware helping keep a country free” is high. Support for a protracted and complex proxy war without clear right and wrong sides is exhausting and hits too many Iraq/Afghanistan buttons for people to care.
Asking for and publicly being denied permission to bomb targets adjacent to the capitol does just as well at communicating “we can bomb your capitol” as actually doing it.
It’d be a little harder for a lot of civilians to be indifferent towards this whole war if it saunters up and starts banging on their front door
Edit: it’s a metaphor. Dude asked how 3-4 bombs would end the war and most things in a war aren’t meant to outright end it. Right now the whole thing is ‘out of sight out of mind’ for most people but if targeted strikes on infrastructure hit local news you bet you’re ass it’d be demoralizing
I know it’s ludicrous to need to ask for permission. I’m sure they won’t get it.
Got no arguments from me here. Bring him hell I say.
What are they gonna do? Bomb your cities, schools, hospitals?
Think we’re past the point of asking for permission at this point.
What are they gonna do? Bomb your cities, schools, hospitals?
A nuclear first strike
As long as their demonstration is against military targets (and not what Israel would classify as a “military targets”), I say let them. Bomb every Russian military base within 200 miles of Ukraine into a crater. Russia only seems to respond to a show of force, unfortunately with its current leadership, so give it to them.
I just feel bad for the Russians who have to live under Putin’s rule. I know several Russians who have fled Russia to avoid drafts or persecution. Hearing them talk about how they “probably will never be able to go home again” is heartbreaking.
FFS stop bringing up Israel in threads that have nothing to do with it. There are many many threads about that subject, the need for gaza-brained people to derail every discussion to inject their propaganda into every discussion is getting really annoying, and really accomplishes nothing.
Such a dogshit take. Nobody besides maybe some of the right wing brain dead mouthbreathers supports genocide. Well, that and people who support China…Weird we don’t hear the same outrage about the genocide happening there. That one doesn’t fit your narrative though does it?
Kick them in the balls. They aren’t fighting fair so why should you.
Eh, it’s been old equipment and concripts for a bit now, but that’s not what the sent at first.
Trying to take a country using your C team and old hardware and then scaling up if things go badly is a radically bad strategy. It’s a great way to lose your C team, and then send more competent soldiers to fight against a prepared and well defensed enemy.
That might be what Russia did, but if so it’s a show of incompetence about in line with everything else we’ve seen and not some “better slow down” signal.
but this is still largely an excursion using older equipment and avoiding mass mobilization
I’m more inclined to think that that Russia is a paper tiger and the mass corruption in the country has fucked up any modern equipment they have to the point of unusability.
They’re saving their best troops for if their initial assault fails defending the border defending Moscow city limits
Dude, Russia is not holding back it’s equipment. A lot of it is being tracked behind spotted on parade and such in Moscow and then blown up on the front. They didn’t even have optics for the vast majority of their troops despite the big advantage of the newer AK platform they adopted being that optics fit on them. You’d never see the US, for example, send that many troops to fight without optics, even assuming they’re holding back.
If Russia is holding equipment, they’re stupid. They should have just deployed it to the front and ended the war. They didn’t do this, and the reason is obvious: it doesn’t exist. They’re sending shit from the Cold War to the front because that’s what they’ve got. They aren’t some amazing superpower that’s just playing nice with poor little Ukraine. They want this war over desperately, so they would end it if they could.
Seriously Striking Moscow (for example) would almost certainly result in a swift, all out retaliation from Russia towards Ukraine.
A large portion of the Russian military has been held in reserve for defense, on the grounds that a full NATO invasion could decapitate the regime (a la Iraq in 2003).
Lemmyites are convinced the Russian military is entirely exhausted and these suicide incursions represent territory Ukrainians can actually hold. But there’s much more of a long game at play, as Europe and Russia wage a proxy was of attrition across Central Europe, Central Africa, and the Middle East.
The only thing I’m convinced of is the fact that you’re talking like a Russian psy-ops agent. You may not be one but at minimum you’re doing their work for them.
Yeah, the whole “they’re not sending their best” Spiel was debunked in the first 6 months. The Russian equipment losses favored high end stuff at the beginning of the war and has been declining ever since. And the Russians have been activating older stuff ever since. Which is visible in the loss data.
A lot of conscripts are indeed not in the war, but judging by performance of the Kursk defense, there is reason to doubt the ability of these forces. Although quantity is a quality by its own right.
Sooner or later Ukraine will start manufacturing their own such weapons. They have demonstrated time and again that they the ability to be creative and do what the world never expected of them.
Holding them back at this point is just prolonging the war.
No. Ukraine is not the US or Russia, it is more on the scale of Germany. It does not have an industrial base outside the range of Russian bombardment (which was also a problem for Germany in ww2). Any advanced weapons systems they use will have to come from outside.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_Ukraine
In 2012, Ukraine’s export-oriented arms industry had reached the status of world’s 4th largest arms exporter.[1]Since the start of the war in Donbas, Ukraine’s military industry has focused more on its internal arms market and as a result slipped to the 9th spot among top global arms exporters by 2015,[2]11th spot by 2018,[3] and the 12th spot among global arms exporters by 2019.
The intensity of the war pre in 2014-2022 is nowhere near what it is now. They’ve had to scramble to even manufacture enough shells let alone weapons systems. The article mentions as well that the new manufacturing capacities have been targeted by Russian artillery.
