A new poll in New Hampshire shows Vice President Kamala Harris is six points ahead of former President Donald Trump in the battleground state.
The survey of more than 2,000 registered New Hampshire voters by Saint Anselm College took place on July 24-25, after Harris secured enough delegate support to become the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
Harris leads Trump 50% to 44% in the poll. A poll taken by Saint Anselm in June after President Biden struggled in the debate showed Trump edging out Biden in New Hampshire by two points.
Great. Glad to hear it. But don’t get complacent. Remind yourself that polls can change fast, and polling itself is a troubled science right now because of the difficulties involved in getting a statistically significant and unbiased sample with the advent of universal cellphones.
I came in here for exactly this.
DON’T GET COMPLACENT
Here is how to volunteer for text banking, apparently. I plan to get off Lemmy and do some later today.
The fuckin world could still end in January. Don’t get all complacent.
Yep, and you don’t have to limit yourself to just text banking too. There’s post card writing, canvassing, phone banks, vote registration drives, etc.
Here’s another site people can use to find a bunch of local volunteer opportunities around them
Another thing we need to work on is making sure people are still registered. Some select groups of people are being removed from registration lists.
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Polls are garbage.
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The Horse Race demands more polls
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Whatever the poll results are, see #1
Exit polls are marginally more useful. As always, and the thing polls do not account for: It Depends.
I disagree that polls are garbage. If that were the case, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said, ignore the polls and make sure you vote.
I’m not saying polls aren’t useful. I’m saying they’re tortured fabrications of some paper-thin slice of reality that can be moulded into whatever narrative is desired.
Occasionally, they mirror the actual zeitgeist. But more often than not, they’re simply created to push a narrative.
Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.
Supporting Trump is so 2016, get with the times…
Do polls make anyone else unreasonably angry?
Unless it’s 20 points, I can’t fathom how that many people support Trump. He never says anything of value in any speech. There’s no platform to support. He just needs power to avoid criminal consequences, and half the country is good with that.
Who answers these polls?
What percentage of the population?
What age groups?
What states?
Are these people who have answered polls in the past are on a list to call for other polls?
Yeah, those questions are the only the only way I stay sane. I’ve never been asked to participate in a poll so I have to assume the demographics are biased toward specific groups, like people who answer land line phones.
You only have to look back to the 2020 election or the support for Trump-loving Republicans in 2022 to recognize that there are still a ton of people who support that dumbass crook.
I wonder how many would actually support him if they weren’t watching Fox News.
I have. But a big part of that is that I respond to polls. I use to work for a survey call center and I know that kind of hell it is and how much completed surveys can improve their pay for the next month, so I tend to do them if they call me.
I initially thought I had been. Like the other person commenting, I realize that completed surveys are good for the poor schmuck working in the call center. But a few questions in, the questions themselves became extremely biased. Like “were you aware that [Dem local candidate] voted in support of the LGBT agenda?” type shit. And then the “pollster” asked some questions that mentioned local towns in rural Minnesota - completely mispronounced. I asked where the caller was located. It turns out the local GOP candidate hired a call center in New York.
I don’t answer phone surveys anymore.
This one is especially dumb. And I think tells the story people keep repeating about not trusting any of these polls. Because the news wants a horse race.
In aggregated data, as of April 2020, Biden was 2% ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Then 8% ahead by August. Then 11% ahead in October. Ended up beating Trump by 8% in the actual New Hampshire vote.
This year Biden was 2% ahead in May. Harris is supposedly 8% ahead now. That will continue to diverge and I’d bet land around 11% ahead again by October.
This is the news slow walking that Trump is still more popular than he really is to keep things interesting.
