The sun is 8 light-minutes away from the Earth - meaning if it were to disappear the sun would still shine in the sky for 8 minutes after it had vanished.
It takes 30 days for Chinese cargo ships to reach the U.S. from China.
‘Liberation day’ was 24 days ago.
That and there are second-order effects. If your business ordered a bunch of shit prior to all of this, and it’s now coming into port you may say “fuck it, send it back” or you may decide to accept it, eat the tariff, and preemptively increase your pricing on your future finished landed goods because you are now having to factor in pricing instability of the input components/materials.
Likewise, during the several months period of fluctuation, many businesses likely made a reasoned decision to stop ordering for the future because they don’t know if the market will tolerate them having to increase their prices by that much and they can’t afford to sit on inventory they will never sell. So even if the government declares “ha just kidding” and completely abandons tariffs today, there could be a period of 2-5 months where many products aren’t available because industries paused proactive ordering based on projected demand.
Another second or third order effect, depending on exactly how you class it:
Lots of smaller, more specific product segment oriented businesses?
Well, the smart ones ordered a bunch of supply at the end of last year or beginning of this year.
Which means their smaller ware and storehouses are fuller than normal.
Which means they… assumed demand would more or less remain steady.
Which means they took a big expense some months ago, maybe covered it with a loan.
Which means the Q4 24 and Q1 25 quarters are actually pulling forward from the rest of the year, which means we will actually GDP fall from… the baseline prior to that, not after that.
… And if when the economy generally tanks, and demand falls through the floor…
Well, some of them will survive.
But many won’t.
Even though they did the arguably smarter thing, they’ll still have to cut hours, do lay offs, even though the bosses told their workers that they didn’t get a Xmas bonus… so that they wouldn’t have to lay them off or cut their hours.
…
Beyond that, remember when the Ever Given got stuck in the Suez?
And… if you knew anyone in logistics… shit was back ordered and fucked up and people were paying premiuma for priority shipping that was still late, and dock processing times and land tranait schedules were fucked because everyone kept changing plans last minute?
Oh just multiply that level of chaos by 100 or 1000 or so.
Nbd rofl.
…
… As someone with a basic Econ degree, I always find it hilarious how often the highly praised and glorified ‘small business owner’… is actually pretty much ignorant of most basic economics.
What is it, 95% or 99% of small businesses fail within the first year? Just like how 99% of Youtubers or Tiktokers or OnlyFans people make essentially no money?
Nobody bothers to look into any of that though, oh well.
At least succesful Youtubers / streamers are generally aware of the fact they’ve won the lottery.
Small business owners on the other hand are usually the most self righteous ass hats I ever meet: We’re a abusive family business!
(though there are of course exceptions to that)
As a smaller business, I have two major projects coming out this summer; work for the local school districts and a large remodel. I’ve already ordered all the parts for these jobs in expectation that my parts house will have great supply right now, but it will dwindle off as the projects come due. Major management companies I work with seem aware that prices will increase, but they don’t seem to be accounting for the fact that all of us will be fighting for fewer parts.Fortunately, I have a good relationship with my supplier, and parts of these orders are going to sit on the shelf with my name on them to be picked up in the near future, helping push out my cost.
This is a nightmare, trying to figure out what’s going to run short, but at least we went through it in 2008 as a practice run. Unique to see us do it on purpose.
I thought the tariffs were canceled? Or reapplied then canceled? I can’t keep up.
It’s not that hard, the 10% was applied, then the reciprocal ones were applied, then delayed except for the ones that weren’t. And then the separate ones on cars and parts, were applied, repealed, and applied again, except for the ones from Canada and Mexico, which are under a different treaty. Except that the ones on Canada are still on, sorta. And the ones on electronics have exceptions, but only from some countries and it covers devices, not parts. Except when it doesn’t. And then the ones on oil and energy are canceled, except some electricity from Canada. Oh, and Israel had theirs canceled. And, of course, this will all change in the next week. See? It’s not that hard. 😜
Why would the supreme leader care? He doesn’t even know what groceries are.
Upon seeing the empty shelves Conservatives will say “this is what life is like under communism” without a shred of irony.
They did that last time Trump was in office lol, I distinctly remember a post exactly like that
IIRC:
It was an aerial, or highly elevated shot of an extremely wealth district of high rise apartments and condos in… Brazil I think?
Seperated by a giant fence with a favela on the other side.
And then labelled something to the effect of ‘this is your brain on communism’ or whatever.
EDIT: Something like this, I think:
Rio de Janiero.
The funny thing is you can see exactly this type of separation in the US it just is usually separated by a free way rather than a fence. East and West Highland in San Bernardino comes to mind.
Related question- how much did Walmart and Target donate to the trump campaign and/or “inauguration fund?”
I’m all for a “Hot Tariff Summer.” Let the shelves be mostly empty, with everything else tripling in price.
Even MAGAs will feel the pain, and they’ll know it is all HitlerPig’s fault. Once they start questioning him even a little bit, it’s the beginning of the end for him.
His approval ratings are already underwater, and dropping. Let him have his way for a while, and his virtuosic incompetence will do more to reduce his support than anything the Resistance can do.
Then what? Best hope is a Blue wave in 2026, impeachment, then removal. Dont think that’s happening sadly. We got 3 more years
Mainstream Dems already impeached him twice. It did shit all to end his first presidency or prevent a second one. It’s a worthless step, obviously.
I would agree, if all things remained the same, but allowing his Tariff Economy to stretch its legs, and make the MAGAs and Corporations feel extreme pain, will change the playing field, and alienate many people who were past supporters. If Republican constituents are screaming at their Senators, maybe a significant number will finally decide that enough is enough.
Of course, impeachment/ removal would be a somewhat unsatisfying result, as it would only put Vance in the driver’s seat, and psycopath Peter Theil keeps him on a very tight leash. We would be at Theil’s mercy, and he has well established that he has none.
Magas won’t know it was hitlerpigs fault because Fox News and Newsmax will tell them it’s some leftwing conspiracy.
