It’s actually insane that there are huge chunks of people expecting AGI anytime soon because of a CHATBOT. Just goes to show these people have 0 understanding of anything. AGI is more like 30+ years away minimum, Andrew Ng thinks 30-50 years. I would say 35-55 years.
At this rate, if people keep cheerfully piling into dead ends like LLMs and pretending they’re AI, we’ll never have AGI. The idea of throwing ever more compute at LLMs to create AGI is “expect nine women to make one baby in a month” levels of stupid.
People who are pushing the boundaries are not making chat apps for gpt4.
They are privately continuing research, like they always were.
But they’re also having to fight for more limited funding among a crowd of chatbot “researchers”. The funding agencies are enamored with LLMs right now.
I wouldn’t say LLMs are going away any time soon. 3 or 4 years ago I did the Sentdex youtube tutorial to build one from scratch to beat a flappy bird game. They are really impressive when you look at the underlying math. And the math isn’t precise enough to be reliable for anything more than entertainment. Claiming it’s AI, much less AGI is just marketing bullshit, tho.
