Key quote:
Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.
“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”
Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”
And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?
This isn’t about their predictions, it’s looking at recent polling data they are aggregating.
And polling data is seriously flawed. I suggest people vote as if there are no polls.
It can be flawed, which is why you track multiple polls over time.
Using the same process outlined above, I watched these states go from pro-Biden, to toss-up, to pro-Trump, and now stronger pro-Trump.
It’s less about the actual numbers and more about the momentum. Biden’s campaign is running out of steam, Trump’s is gaining momentum.
Biden has been consistently polling behind the Democrats who also have a state-wide election. If it’s flawed it’s in a very specific way that overweights the specific kind of Democratic voter that supports their state candidate and doesn’t support Biden. That’s not particularly likely.
538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.
Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he’s still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.
Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.
Believe me, no one is burying their heads in the sand. The NY Times just spent like two weeks covering nothing but Biden’s age. I had to scroll down like 1500px to find the fucking French election results and I’m not even sure they bothered to send someone to cover the hurricane that wrecked multiple countries and hit one of the most populous regions of the country.
If you believe this is the most important election in our lifetimes and believe the polls and analysis that put Biden in a bad and worsening position, it’s kind of the most important story in the country, if not the world. There’s a reason it’s like a 50% of all political discussions here.
Hmmm… I wonder if it has anything to do with all the non voting SJWs that show up every four years to demand bullshit they don’t even understand.
Also, it’s okay for them to be woefully wrong, as long as others are…. wronger?
