Summary

Brian Thompson, CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was fatally shot in a premeditated attack outside the New York Hilton Midtown before speaking at an investor conference.

The gunman, still at large, fired multiple times, leaving shell casings marked with the words “deny,” “defend,” and “depose.”

Authorities suggest Thompson was targeted but remain unclear on the motive. His wife confirmed prior threats against him.

Analysts speculate a possible vendetta tied to his company. The case raises questions about executive security, as Thompson lacked personal protection despite known risks.

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-3 points

Are you really suggesting that only possible realistic motive to murder him is because of his position at UHC?

I can think of so many plausible scenarios. I just gave you one, here’s another: he was cheating on his wife, so she paid to have him killed, something that actually happens in the real world and doesn’t involved time travelers.

I’m sure you would like this to be a just world where bad people get killed for good reasons, but that’s not how the world works. Hitler’s generals tried to assassinate him and it wasn’t because they thought he was being too mean to the Jews.

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9 points

Obviously there are many plausible scenarios, but one of them scales significantly differently than the others.

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-9 points

If there are many plausible scenarios, even if one is the most plausible, it’s silly to assume that’s the one.

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5 points
*

It’s only silly if one misunderstands an assumption to be established fact.

If I hear hoofbeats, I will assume horses, not zebras.

If I see Zebras, I’ll say my assumption was wrong. No shame in it. I’m wrong all the fucking time, being right isn’t part of my identity.

But until then, if someone says “what do figure those hoofbeats are?” I’m not going to say “50/50 horses or zebras”

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11 points

Possible vs Probable.

Lots of things are possible, sure, but his position and impact on people due to his position does make one very probable.

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-11 points

I am guessing you do not know enough about him personally to know what is the most probable. Maybe he very openly cheats on his wife. That would make his wife hiring a hit man very probable. Maybe he’s swindled someone out of a ton of money on a personal level rather than via UHC. Again, that would make a good motive to kill him.

We do not have enough information here and pretending we do is not very wise.

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2 points

True, it’s possible he has numerous enemies.

But what I can say is the average person doesn’t have people wanting to kill them. If all things are equal, and given the message written on the casings, there seems to be one that is currently the most probable.

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8 points

He MAYBE fucked around on his one wife causing embarrassment.

He CERTAINLY fucked around with THOUSANDS of people causing DEATH.

It’s worthwhile to consider alternatives but it’s unwise to paint all scenarios as equally likely.

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27 points
*

Are you really suggesting

nope, just toying around with the concept, figured it would be about 3/5 on the joke scale.

edit: Though if you really wanted to get into it, the words scribed on the casings might direct you to a likely solution. *

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-22 points

Or the words on the casings are intended to direct you to the wrong solution. Because, again in the real world, people who commit premeditated crimes throw police off the scent intentionally.

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12 points

Ah yes. “The murderer must be playing 5d chess to fool people” angle. It’s an angle, but not a reasonable one. How much Scooby Doo have you watched?

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14 points

Ehh, I think Occam would have the better of that here.

In any case. (no pun intended) Maybe they’ll spend a few minutes reflecting on the own mortality while they’re ripping us off thinking there’s no recourse.

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