I think that’s a false premise. Third parties are virtually always losing propositions due to the structure of our elections. In a race of red versus blue, if an orange candidate enters the race and some of the red voters vote orange instead because orange more closely fits their preferences, then blue wins with 40% of the vote when 60% of the electorate wanted a warm color.

I’ll also point out that Obama campaigned on a message of hope and progress to two victories.

Yes and no. Of course he has power and connections, but to his followers he is an outsider (although I don’t understand how they ignore everything that shows the opposite) and the media and many politicians treat him (rightfully) as a pariah. That gives him legitimacy in the eyes of his or undecided voters.

Now, nothing he proposes will change anything for the vast majority of his voters for the better, in fact it will make things worse. And that’s ignoring everybody else, especially migrants. But when he says “I see your problems, voters, here’s the solution: fascism”, they more readily believe him because he is perceived as an outsider, not like politicians who frankly haven’t done shit for them.