Trump is not eligible to be president. He’s been legally found by a Colorado court to have engaged in insurrection and the 14th amendment now bars him from the office of president. It’s legally very clear. Will it be enforced? Will the constitution be subverted by the Supreme? Tune in for the last season of America: Democracy!
You know Harris’s declining probability of winning is sinking in when we’re hoping the courts will defy the long sequence of continuous nothing they’ve done so far and will suddenly declare Trump ineligible.
If wishes were fishes, we’d all cast nets.
The one where major polling aggregators have shown her chances of winning slowly slipping for about a month. Nate Silver’s model now shows Trump’s probability of winning about 8% higher than Harris. See the blue line slowly going down, crossing beneath the red line? Blue line go down = bad. Which world do you live in?
It is legally very clear, but not in the way you’re hoping. The Supreme Court ruled—unanimously I would add—that individual states do not have the authority to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to disqualify a candidate from federal office. That power lies solely with Congress, which is probably a good thing or we’d have conservative-controlled courts in red states declaring every Democratic presidential nominee ineligible every election cycle.
While the Court left open the possibility for Congress to act, there is currently no legislation addressing this issue. For Congress to disqualify a candidate under Section 3, they would first need to pass a law, which would require 60 votes in the Senate to avoid a filibuster and a simple majority in the House. Only then could they decide the specific voting threshold for disqualification. In reality, this is highly unlikely to happen.
In the extraordinarily improbable event that Trump wins but somehow Democrats secure a majority in the House and simultaneously expand to 60 Senate seats—or, in an even more bizarre scenario, they hold only 50 seats, abolish the filibuster, and have Vice President Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to disqualify the candidate who defeated her—they could theoretically draft, pass, and enact such legislation. They could then invoke it to disqualify Trump before his inauguration. With a 17-day window between the seating of the new Congress and the president’s swearing-in, this scenario is technically possible, but politically fantastical.
Such an unlikely scenario, like a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, would absolutely ignite a political crisis and likely a stochastic civil war in the United States.
Sadly, the fact is, none of that will happen, and Trump appears to now have a slight edge in the electoral college (he’s currently about 6% more likely to win the EC than Harris according to Silver’s model), it’s quite possible, leaning towards probable, that Trump will win the election, get rid of most of the lawsuits against him, purge and/or dissolve several federal agencies, install loyalists at all levels of the government, and begin his deportation and vengeance tour with a bought-and-paid-for SCOTUS knocking down any attempts to stop him.
Sorry to be a bummer.
I thought the supreme court cleared his way (not that I think it’s right, just legally speaking)
It I recall correctly, it was more of a punt. They said it needed to be litigated after the election because the constitution bans insurrectionists from office, not running or some bullshit. Fuck the god kings
