Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’(www.nj.com)

posted 17 days ago

just_another_person@lemmy.world

politics@lemmy.world

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TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world

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16 days ago

Ok, so I’m just scrolling through the most recent polls and picking out numbers based on this. I’m just going to grab the most recent numbers from Silver Bulletin. I’ll grab the latest, most recent number for a given pollster, Harris & Trump only.

Not red wave: 6

The New York Times/Siena College

Harris/ Trump:

44%/ 49% (but also, I’m not sure whats going on with the repeat entries on this poll…)

InsiderAdvantage

Not in Nate Silvers database, cant find in 538’s either, different name?

Emerson College

Harris/ Trump:

50.2%/ 48.6%

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO - While Fabrizio is a Red Wave pollster, GBAO is not.

Harris/ Trump:

45%/ 50%

Quinnipiac University

Harris/ Trump:

47%/ 49%

YouGov/Center for Working Class Politics

Harris/ Trump:

51%/ 48%

Just Bad polling: 3

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

Harris/ Trump:

46%/ 48%

Research Co.

Harris/ Trump:

49%/ 45%

Hunt research:

47%/ 47%

OnMessage:

Can’t find in either database.

Red Wave (2):

TIPP Insights

Harris/ Trump:

48%/ 49%

McLaughlin

Harris/ Trump:

48%/ 49%

Doing the quick stats…

Not Red Wave Polls:

Mean:
    Harris: 47.44%
    Trump: 48.92%
Standard Deviation:
    Harris: 3.09%
    Trump: 0.73%

Just Bad Polling:

Mean:
    Harris: 47.33%
    Trump: 46.67%
Standard Deviation:
    Harris: 1.53%
    Trump: 1.53%

Red Wave Polls:

Mean:
    Harris: 48.0%
    Trump: 49.0%
Standard Deviation:
    Harris: 0.0%
    Trump: 0.0%

The Red Wave polls and the Not Rave polls are in good agreement. These polls are all with each others MOE, and would fail a t-test.

Harris:

t-statistic: -0.405
p-value: 0.706

Trump:

t-statistic: -0.245
p-value: 0.818

Both p-values are significantly higher than 0.05, indicating that there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of Harris and Trump percentages.

The article is wrong. Unless it meant to say that Times/ Sienna is a “Red Wave” pollster, this an article targeted towards Blue MAGA to give them something they want to hear.

[Fuck, I’m annoyed. I did this for national, not PA.]

Annoyed so I just made a generalized analysis for everystate:

Codeshare link: https://codeshare.io/ONzAZ0

PA results:

No significant differences. 95% confidence intervals in the shaded area.

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