Agreed, no investment can be guaranteed. However, average return of s&p 500 over 100 years has been 10%. Average return of an example index-fund, VTI, since inception in 2001 has been around 8%.
I’m of the opinion that the stock market is overvalued right now, mainly pumped up by tech stocks which are overvalued due to AI hype. I can’t help but think eventually all the baby boomers are going to want to cash out and enjoy their invested money while they’re still alive.
But on another note, do you expect the stock market to perpetually trend up? I suppose inflation helps keep stock prices up because the dollar is worth less than before.
The reality is, you’ll never be able to time it perfectly. Contributing over time, rather than lump-sum, will spread the risk.
If something does happen to the stock market, we’ll all be fucked. Pretty much every country, company, and individual is invested in some shape or form. Pensions, insurance etc.
