“Asked how many members of the House of Reps there were, Stein guessed 600-some before hosts corrected her.”
You’re not getting my point. I’m not saying someone can win with just a handful of voters from swing states, I’m saying that someone can stop another candidate from winning by courting those voters. Hence, a spoiler.
Sure that could happen, but then you never had those voters. At some point you have to lay the blame at the people who voted like this, if it happens.
This is like saying that getting a question wrong on a test can be the difference between pass and fail, and then picking a question at random and deciding to focus on that instead of the whole test.
You are right it could be enough people to match the difference in votes, but thats not the same as saying its essential we get that voter block no matter what. Theres a ton of things that make a difference, but its the collection of them that makes a candidate.
Your test analogy kind of proves the point, though. Say you have a 10 question test and 8 are very easy, and the last 2 are very difficult. In general, if you’ve done your homework, you should get most of the first 8. Whether or not you get a really good grade will depend more on the last 2. I think both parties are guilty of assuming they’ll get the first 8 correct no problem, but there is a tactically sound reason to focus on the last 2.
I’d argue they focus too little on the first 8 and too much on the last 2. Both would be an error in analysis of course.
Also it runs the risk of people applying statistics to individual cases, or groups too small to be statistically relevant.
