You are viewing a single thread.
View all comments View context
1 point
*

Precisely. Harris is losing ground nationally and is losing ground in battleground states. Unless this debate significantly moves the needle, which I don’t think it will for the very elegant reasons you summed, current trend lines indicate Harris losing steam and Trump continuing to pick up voters. No amount of wishful thinking will change that.

permalink
report
parent
reply
0 points

I’ve been tracking polling all year and you can see the past few weeks of progress here:

https://lemmy.world/post/19253997

Harris is losing ground in AZ, GA, PA and MI. If that slide continues with no debate bump it’s going to be super hard to pull out a win.

WI moved to toss up. MI is on the verge of moving from Harris to toss up next week. PA and AZ have outright moved to the Trump category.

There’s time to reverse it… but man…

permalink
report
parent
reply
3 points

Yeah. The surprise nominee change and DNC bumps are ebbing and the debate will likely be a blip at best.

It’s like there’s an unceasing gravity to Trump’s numbers, like being choked by a boa constrictor. I think that’s largely a result of his polling numbers being much “harder” than Harris, i.e. the percent of each candidates numbers that will never change their mind for and reason whatsoever and will always and fully support their candidate no matter what is much higher for Trump than Harris.

permalink
report
parent
reply
2 points
*

I’ll add that it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Swift’s endorsement did more for Harris than the debate does. Kooky times we live in.

permalink
report
parent
reply

politics

!politics@lemmy.world

Create post

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

  1. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  2. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  3. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to “Mom! He’s bugging me!” and “I’m not touching you!” Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
  4. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  5. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That’s all the rules!

Civic Links

Register To Vote

Citizenship Resource Center

Congressional Awards Program

Federal Government Agencies

Library of Congress Legislative Resources

The White House

U.S. House of Representatives

U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

News

World News

Business News

Political Discussion

Ask Politics

Military News

Global Politics

Moderate Politics

Progressive Politics

UK Politics

Canadian Politics

Australian Politics

New Zealand Politics

Community stats

  • 9.8K

    Monthly active users

  • 12K

    Posts

  • 214K

    Comments