Donald Trump has quietly wound down his presidential campaign in states he was targeting just six weeks ago amid polling evidence showing that Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race has put them out of reach and narrowed his path to the White House.
The Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has diverted resources away from Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire – states Trump was boasting he could win while Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate – to focus instead on a small number of battleground states.
Money is being poured into the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which were all carried by Biden in 2020 and are seen as vital to the outcome of November’s election.
I love that the election is decided by 3 states containing less than 10% of the population
Pennsylvania: 13M
Wisconsin: 6M
Michigan: 10M
Total US: 333M
29/333 = 8.7%
Those 3 states are huge, but the other swing states are definitely still a factor. If Harris wins all 3 Blue Wall states, she very likely will win the presidency. However, if she doesn’t win all 3, then either candidate’s victory will likely be decided by the other swing states - Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.
I mean, if you’re going to use that metric, you might as well go smaller, because a lot of people in those states have already made up their mind. It’s only voters who might be willing to choose or adjust their vote that are in play.
Only the states that are still undecided enough to tip, and within those, only the voters whose position is still undecided enough to potentially tip.
Yeah. Not unreasonable to say maybe 1% of registered voters are in play, so maybe 200,00 people or so.
That’s like saying the first 94 meters of a 100 meter race don’t matter because the last 6 meters decide the winner. If you don’t finish the last 6 meters ahead, you’ve lost.
That analogy doesn’t work because in these models it’s a straight tie for those 94 meters and it’s the last 6 meters that are left. If the polling data is accurate (big if of course), then the other 47 states cancel each other out in EC votes, so it’s down to these 3.
