Exactly this. Somehow this position is one of my most controversial comments, and started some really good conversation.
It’s interesting because you seem to have focused a lot more on the actual Taiwan they’d be invading and less about the worldwide implications of doing so. For me, it’s a much different argument than most people think it is.
People state that the US is overdependent on China but forget that China is also dependent on Taiwan and China is also dependent on the US. For all of the saber rattling that both China and the US do at each other, they’re humongous trade partners and losing that partnership is the #1 reason that neither of them have any interest in actually starting a war. Similar to what Russia does, they will both do as much with words as they can to show power but never go further.
Then when you get to actually talking about Taiwan, it’s kind of irrelevant in regards to geography and taking it over. China has the resources to do that and Taiwan vs China is a losing (but costly) battle if the US isn’t involved. But when the US is involved, they lose. China has a large military and tons of traditional firepower but they don’t have battle tested hardware even. Meanwhile the US eats breathes and sleeps war and is extremely well funded.
So I like your breakdown and I think you’re entirely right but the issue is just so much simpler than people make it in my opinion. Now if another conflict prompted it, China might try to take Taiwan as a distraction, but that’d be the only scenario and we’d already be at war.
I agree with you on all points. My original post was directed at the RAINING DOWN HELLFIRE FROM DRONES rhetoric in the article and tailored my response to that AO.
I’ll paste it into here when I find it but I have a better breakdown of what’s probably happening instead.
Edit: I found the comment, however in the thread for the original coment I linked, a lot of people came in to provide really apt and considered context. I really love this aspect of Lemmy when people get together to discuss and share their knowledge on different topics. Many good points were raised.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don’t think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it’s generated here.
