China has no incentive to invade Taiwan.
I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.
There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
So on that timeline we should’ve already been at WW3 for about a year now
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future
The missile engines were being used to heat up pot noodle on cold days, so I completely understand the motivation of those remote PLA Airman
To a more serious point, likely as not they’ll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn’t approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade until it actually happened
Pasted from my response to another post
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
There are rumors that Xi has been overthrown and is now only a figurehead.
I believe those have been debunked if I’m inferring that you’re referencing the most recent of such rumors.
Let me know if that’s not what you heard as I’m happy to be corrected.
