Nate Silver, formerly of 538, believes Biden should drop out.
I’ve thought this through for quite some time and I think you’re missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.
- “We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them.”
- “Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead.”
- FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
- A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.
With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn’t the 80s. Elections aren’t won on television ads.
All we know is what doesn’t work, and what doesn’t work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020.
I’ve listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers) – and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:
It is time to try something different.
I didn’t vote for Biden in the 2020 primary and I don’t disagree with you on those points. That easily could be how it plays out. I just think if Biden resigns, there’s a high chance of a split in the party (after a contested convention) and we’re all imagining a new candidate we like (or just a “generic democrat”) replacement rather than a real person who possibly has baggage, hasn’t been tested on the national stage (or was bad on it like Kamala Harris), or won’t be able to unite the coalition that backed Biden in 2020.
Basically, I think it’s a huge gamble this late in the election. Biden shouldn’t have run again and when he did, should have faced a real challenge in the primary. But that isn’t what happened and now I think changing course over one debate isn’t worth the risk.
I’ll agree that it’s a dilemma for sure. To me I think both situations carry baggage. At this point, things are looking so atrociously bad that I think the risk is worth it and any candidate nominated at convention who may have baggage will probably running off the highs of being a fresh face before the baggage becomes a serious issue (and sad we have to talk about baggage when Trump is the opposition). Realistically it would probably be Whitmer or Newsom.
The thing to me is that this debate isn’t a one-off. It’s the culmination of what people have seen and been warning of and what’s been reflected in polls for quite a long time now.
I’ll be clear that I didn’t vote for Biden either during the 2020 primaries but I did ultimately vote for him in November. I’ll vote for him again if it comes down to it. But I’m not who you need to convince, unfortunately.
Edit: Let me also just say that it’s better now than later. What if Biden has a medical emergency in October? At the rate of his decline and age that is a very real possibility.
Also never been a fan of Biden (but voted for him, and will again, if I have to). You’re falling into a Sunk Cost Fallacy. Yes, anyone chosen to replace Biden would be a gamble. But, Biden is a losing horse. The right time to replace him was last year. But, just because we missed that opportunity doesn’t mean we should throw good time after bad. He should be replaced before things get so late it literally cannot be done.
This wasn’t some otherwise strong candidate, who just had a bad day. Biden is already struggling in polling. While the economy hasn’t been fantastic, it’s good enough that he should be crushing Trump. Even in 2016, Clinton was polling ahead of Trump and still managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Biden isn’t winning. He’s maybe tied and maybe losing in current polling. Trump had already proven that he can be convicted in court and not lose support. There’s just not much left to hurt Trump. And Biden doesn’t seem to have anything left to gain support. Things are not going to get better for Biden.
Biden is losing this race. It’s time to follow the rats off the ship, before we’re trying to escape a ship on the bottom of the ocean.
With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn’t the 80s. Elections aren’t won on television ads.
No, but they are still very much won with money. Advertising of various forms (TV, radio, Internet, billboards, yard signs, T-shirts, the list goes on), local outreach, field offices, door to door campaigners, booths at events, social media, and countless more. All of it is driven by money.
Citizens United fucked every election since. It exclusively dealt with campaign finance.
Oh I agree, don’t get me wrong. But let’s be honest: Biden doesn’t have the grassroots fundraising that propelled Obama to victory and also gave Bernie a good shot at the primaries for how fringe he was.
Even I who’ve given loads of money in the past am exhausted by the fundraising calls under Biden and at this point post-debate think it’s a wasted investment.
I’m just assuaging concerns about money when you can substitute viral marketing which would naturally come from the unprecedented nature of having an incumbent president step down and endorse some other individual. Months of free coverage.
