Starting with a declaimer of being fairly far left…
Biden is not looking like he has a winning chance. He’s barely leading in national polls, but those polls are misleading, as, because of the senate, democrats typically need to win by 2.5-3 points in order to have a shot at the electoral college. So he’s behind there.
He’s behind in several key states where he needs to win. If you count states where he’s down 2 points or less, he BARELY has enough to win. Can’t miss a single state.
The debate hurt Biden. This is not a logical contest, it’s a popularity one, and Biden is not doing well. I think he’s done some great policy things, but that’s not how people vote. Democrats have to learn that it’s not enough to be “right” if you’re going to lose elections.
Polls are garbage.
Democrats have been beating the polls at the ballot boxes by 9 points nationwide since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
It’s been going on long enough now that either pollsters don’t want to adjust or they don’t know how.
As for the debate, there is (conservative funded so YMMV) research that shows that debates don’t change anyone’s mind.
Don’t get so wrapped up in their dog & pony show.
Saying polls are garbage is a straight bad take. The differentiation between polls is immense, and people treat them like they are just one thing.
They do adjust, and if you don’t know that I’m not likely to believe you have the knowledge to say they are bad.
Polls are still very indicative. Democrats are not magically beating them by 9 points. That’s just flatly untrue, unless you are just rolling every poll together with no regard for methodology, funding source, sample size, or track record.
That information came from David Axelrod, you can argue with him if you think he’s wrong.
