I think what’s happening is that the old political boundaries are being rewritten. The MAGA crowd don’t hold all the same views as old school conservatives, and so some of them are now swing voters. But also Trump is pulling some votes from the democrats, most obviously the unions

The person who wants Biden to be the nominee the most is Trump. Notice he’s gone completely quiet on him, not blasting him for his age like some democrats are, because he knows he can win against an 81yo Biden. As soon as he’s confirmed as the nominee, Team Trump will turn around and try to make him look as old as dirt

That information doesn’t change anything I’ve said. He can be “trailing trump” and still not be the best candidate the dems could have

I think there are people on the fence (who generally decide the election) who would be swayed by Biden’s apparent dementia

The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.

Here’s the results as of posting this comment:

Joe Biden: 27% Kamala Harris: 50% Michelle Obama: 100% Gavin Newsom: 66% Other: 50%

Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.

TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options

You don’t think if Biden stepped down and it was an open primary there wouldn’t be some good options?

Pete Buttigeig, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, anyone under 60 would make Trump look like a dottering old man in comparison

I don’t think the opinion “the man who has control of the nuclear arsenal is showing signs of senility and should not serve another 4 years regardless of who replaces him” is not an unreasonable one

It is not game theoretically aligned. It’s not his fault, Game Theory didn’t really get going until after his death

Marx’s critique of capitalism is spot on. It’s his proposed solution that is problematic

I have to give credit where it’s due, I actually like this change. Likes used to be private, and then they became public and subject to the toxic performativity of social media

This is fair, I wonder if in former Soviet spaces the roles are reversed