atzanteol
BUT HE HEARD IT ON THE TV!
Though with weather its more egregious, we have a huge dataset to test weather predictions vs weather results against, to test the accuracy of models.
You’re right - and the predictions are quite accurate for 24-48 hours out. The thing is - if you say “there is a 90% chance of rain” then you would expect that 1 out of 10 times it would rain. If it rains all 10 times then your probability estimate was wrong (it was 100% chance of rain). At least over a large sample set.
Nate actually goes into this quite a bit in his book The Signal and the Noise.
And of course, probabilities are just that: probabilities.
LIke… Yeah. It’s crazy to me how many people think “75%” means “that person will win” and then blame the polls if they don’t. People do this all the f’ing time with the weather as well. “They said it would rain!” when, in fact, they said there was a 80% probability that it would rain.
So basically “I read something about ‘election interference’ once and now I think that’s a law and how it should be enforced.”
I like how people just make up legal shit on the internet. Hey - isn’t your post giving “illegal legal advice”? I once saw an episode of Matlock where that was a thing.
“Subjective” is not the same as “useless” or “arbitrary”.
If you know the types of movies I like then when I give movie ratings you can adjust for that bias. Especially if I publish my review criteria, preferences, etc. You may not agree with my rating, but if you understand it then you can make an informed decision about whether you may like the movie as well.
Great question. Right up there with “what’s the best movie” or “which meal should I order”. Maybe you want to ask which editor is the best too?
