German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone’s suddenly saying “we have to go to war over THAT?” and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that’s your cue that phase 1 is complete.
This is specifically why France developed their nuclear arsenal under De Gaulle.
De Gaulle believed that the Americans could not be trusted to defend Europe, he was afraid that if the Russians would attack Europe with nuclear weapons the US would not defend us.
America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?
America is doing just fine, it’s just the USA portion of it that is troubled
Lol I live here and I gotta say, Id sign off on us being renamed to The States of America, we are the most not united thing to ever exist. We are being held together by godamn silly string and hate porn.
Most politicians are seeing that now but I wonder how many of them will remember these terrifying developments as soon as another guy sits in the white house. They were way too eager to cozy up to Biden after the first 4 terrible years of Trumpism. We shouldn‘ve learned our lesson then and we should learn our lesson now. Once and for all.
Yes. They are that dumb. Every day there’s some fresh stupidity they come up with. Seriously, that moron is talking about invading Canada and seizing Greenland and there’s no massive outcry in D.C. to impeach or even remove him for such absurd goals?
YES. They ARE that stupid.
Instead of hanging trump for treason of jan 6, you elected him into office after he got charged with a felony AND legal system agreed president can do whatever illegal shit they want up to and beyond dictatorship. Yeah, they are that fucking dumb.
America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.
europe will not go to war over THAT.
Yep. Here’s a fun possible timeline:
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US takes over greenland. Europe won’t respond militarily, but will cut off most ties to 'murika, and the US government will be like “why would europe be so mean to us, we were only trying to keep them safe from Russia and China?!”.
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Europe won’t pivot too hard to China/India, but they’ll become preferred trading-partners. EU will become the bastion of actual Democracy.
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China will take that whole debacle as a green light to take Taiwan, or just re-taking manchuria (and keep taking bites out of Russia until they have reached the arctic). I honestly don’t think they’ll waste energy on Taiwan. Their military build-up and posturing towards Taiwan is probably just a ruse to lull Russia into a false sense of security.
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Russia will throw a hissyfit (threaten nukes, fail to deliver, and get fucked on the ground/air/sea). The US will try to come to their aid under the guise of stopping the “yellow threat” or whatever. That’ll eventually fizzle out as the US devolves into a civil war (that will hopefully be over quickly, but will probably make the US truly isolationist for at least 50 years). Europeans might lament the aggression of China in public, but will privately go “fuck yeah get 'em”.
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The Russian federation will collapse and splinter, and the rest of the 21st century will be a mess of global instability and the odd rogue van-borne nuke going off here and there, because swamp-troglodytes infested with a mongol khanate mindset (muscovy) should never have had nukes in the first place.
Doesn’t this scenario essentially cut off the US from advanced chip manufacturing? The chips are made in taiwan and the machines for making the chips are made in europe.
If the EU won’t consider themselves to be at war when the part of the EU defensive pact zone that is called Greenland is invaded, they’re losing all credibility both internally and externally. Why would the EU defend Finland or the Baltics or Cyprus? Why would the EU organize against foreign powers funding violent rebellions inside EU territory (similar to how Russia funded Transnistria or the US funded the contras in Nicaragua)?
There is no better red line for France to launch their nukes than the invasion of Greenland. As seen with Russia, any grace given to cult of personality dictators only emboldens them and their worshipers. The only fair response to madman theory is to call the ‘insane’ administration’s bluff and let the people who don’t want them and their families to become radioactive piles of ash take the responsibility of defying insane orders.
Which is ironic, because the only time article 5 was invited was by the Americans, after 9/11.
Salami slicing all the way to London.
They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I’m quite certain Putin won’t live that long
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe, who, likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
I don’t think you understand that trump is not only dumb he is also a russian asset. Sure actual evidence is shaky but when there is someone squatting with their pants down, only an completely insane person would claim they are in the process of laying chicken eggs.
Trump will do anything in the safety of his home if he feels like it benefits him. If it has no negative impact for him, he doesn’t care. That’s why he could start a war with anyone, because he wouldn’t go to the front.
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot
I’m gonna stop you right there. Every time we underestimate Trump he shows there is no low and/or stupidity he won’t sink to. He’s credibly accused of being a Russian asset and has done everything Putin could have possibly wanted in terms of weakening western power and alliances. In like 3 months. Do I think he’ll attack the UK or something? No. But he may very well do everything possible to help Russia, including giving them weapons and hurting their enemies…
There’s a chance Trump’s successor as fuhrer will be more directly militaristic, but only a chance. Most likely, Putin is still expecting Europe to fold and submit this time he escalates. Probably because he’s misread the complacency of the West over the past two decades as a weakness of personality.
likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Who are you thinking of? Canada’s a “shoe in” if you’ll take us, of course, but anyone else?
I don’t know… These last few years have led me to never underestimate stupidity. Not that I think this would happen, because I don’t think Americans would allow that.
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe
I don’t think he’ll have to. With Europe busy infighting and a war on the eastern border, he can snack up Greenland just as he’s planning to. Nobody will do anything about it at that point.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.
Hence his narrative of the “Nazis” who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.
Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Barring help from the US, I would be shocked if they don’t have hyperinflation within 15 months. Maybe they can keep going through that, or maybe not.
Kremlin believed that Ukraine was a country that would fall to their knees, bend over and happily join them.
Now they are taking their time and bomb civilians, infrastructure.
They are taking their time. This is not an inability. This is a deliberate breaking of Ukraine’s back.
Painting russia as unable to take over Ukraine by force is also false. They could throw enough meat to take over. Without blinking an eye.
Ask yourself. What is more beneficial? Ukraine partisants that keep sabotaging them after a violent takeover? Or disappointed and frustrated Ukraine after it slowly collapsed?
There were SS groups that consisted of volunteers from the conquered countries.
Never discredit an enemy. It serves no one but them.
Interesting. Why block the whole instance? Have you seen a lot of lemm.ee users parroting propaganda? I didn’t realize that instance was so bad.
Checks out. Got to capitalise on having his asset installed in the highest office of the US before things risk stabilising.
i mean, don’t we all just assume this now?
i don’t mean to make light of the news, but it’s clear as day: america isn’t america any more.
America has always been an aggressive state - the only thing that has changed are the targets. But this is perfectly „American”.
you’re right, and phrases like “america isn’t america any more” probably aren’t really constructive, now that i stop to think about what i wrote. it actually plays to the kind of shit they’re trying to do right now with the smithsonian. so i regret writing that. thanks for pointing it out.
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine and they’ll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then…
There’s this old saying that goes something like: “The European Airforce could beat Russia any day of the week - as long as they don’t have to do it the next week as well.”
Meaning, the most pressing problem are our ammunition stockpiles. If you research that you’ll quickly see how bad the situation is in the EU currently. The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
Then there’s also the issue of lacking infrastructure, the absence of a unified command structure in Europe and with the withdrawal of the US, also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like “Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells”.
What they mean is “we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations.”
No military ever has enough, Russia “ran out” a few days into their offense, and yet they’ve been fighting for years.
the absence of a unified command structure in Europe
Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.
also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
Yeah, Europe has a terrifying lack of enablers, but the reason for that is, apart from intelligence, is that European militaries aren’t prepared for, or want to be prepared for, large scale offensive power projection away from home.
You can drive a truck from Gibraltar to Talin in Estonia in 48 hours. A train takes slightly longer, though I imagine clearing the railways is a lot easier under martial law.
Europe only has one good wing of tanker/transport planes, but we have hundreds and hundreds of airfields, and you don’t need much mid-air refueling in a defensive war where everyone has capital cities in easy jet range.
The lack of airborne radar and satellites is MUCH worse for Europe than any other enablers.
You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like “Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells”.
What they mean is “we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations.”
No military ever has enough, Russia “ran out” a few days into their offense, and yet they’ve been fighting for years.
Idk man, we (as in NATO nations, except the US) ran out of ammunition during the air campaign against Libya. And that lasted mere days without any significant enemy pushback. There simply are no significant (deep) depots of ammunitions stockpiled here. Sure, we could probably start throwing helmets at the Russians after a week or so.
Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.
Most of the NATO command structure is incredibly US centric though, it doesn’t end with the SACEUR. It’s kind of unsettling considering our current relation with the US.
Regarding your last paragraph, I agree that airborne radar and satellite data are the most crucial factors we are lacking without the US.
Russia has the same problem as the same problem has the US, but supercharged it. They made the military the backbone of the economy and main social safety net, so they need to be in a permanent state of conflict to justify it.
To different scales it is. The US has been using the armed forces as an employer of last resort, and defense factories are the only thing keeping some regions afloat. Of course the US economy is significantly more developed outside of the military, but if the US were to scale back its military there would be transversal cracks all over the economy and society.
Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could have been sustained without there being secret direct evidence.
Here’s hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn’t decide to end the world.
Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin’s nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia’s nukes are more or less a bluff.
This is an incredibly dangerous assumption. According to the Federation of American Scientists Russia has a stockpile of 4489 warheads of which some 1674 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles.[1] A large part of these warheads might be defective but realistically you only need a handful of working ones. Russia also has the necessary material and infrastructure to keep their warheads in working order.[2] So while their capabilities compared to the USSR are greatly diminished there is no reason to assume that Russias nukes are all in non-working condition.
[1] https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-10/features/breakdown-breakout-us-and-russian-warhead-production-capabilities
I’m not saying to assume they don’t all work. I’m saying to diaregard their threats of using thembecause they likely won’t.
They have >1000. They only need a 1% success rate.
Based on intel from my MI buddies
I really hope you’re lying about that.
I was US Army Signal Corp about 20 years ago. We worked closely with MI, and those guys gave me the info.
