The U.S. is eyeing Greenland while Russia continues to carve up Ukraine. I believe the US will place soldiers on Greenland in an attempt to annex it. I think it will likely happen before Trump’s term ends.
If (hopefully not when) the U.S. pressures Ukraine into accepting a bad deal with both Washington and Moscow for “peace”, will they leverage that outcome—along with the Greenland situation—to further erode European sovereignty?
Europe cannot realistically fend off the US on Greenland? And certainly not while being pressured by both Russia and the US on different fronts? I am so fucking glad Europe got nukes.
i think u.s. politics are so completely unstable right now that any attempt at long term planning is fruitless and neigh nigh impossible.
The US side? Maybe? The Russian side, good fucking luck. They still haven’t taken Ukraine. They would be smashed by any EU army.
If the EU can actually rally together and form a European army…
^edit: spelling^
Poland alone seems perfectly willing to invade Russia given an iota of provocation.
Not what I said, ANY EU country’s army will most likely stump the Russians based on their performance in Ukraine, one of the poorest countries in Europe whom at the time in 2014, and then again in 2022 we’re relatively unprepared for defending against an invasion.
I think you are overestimating both of their ability to execute.
I’m not saying there is not an enormous danger on the horizon depending on what happens. But as long as Trump stays in charge, maybe even as long as Musk stays in charge, their ability to do real damage will be limited somewhat by their incompetence and their many personal failings. The American system is so corrupt at this point that people can take control of vast elements of the output and power of the system even if they couldn’t pour water out of a boot. But that doesn’t always carry over to their ability to influence things outside of their little weakened environment. Tim Snyder wrote about it in “The Weak Strongman.”
Yeah. Also, even with the best material and military forces in the world at your disposal, you can still completely fuck it up. The history of war is absolutely filled with empires who had all the advantages and still got clowned on because the leadership just made dumb decisions. And if your MO is similar to Trump’s or Putin’s, none of your trickery works anymore once you get outside of your own little corrupt orbit and have to cope with reality and skilled committed adversaries.
I dug up the actual article, because it says it better than I can: https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-weak-strongman
Ignoring the practicality of achieving it for a moment, acquiring Greenland and Canada gives an allied Russia and US near full control of the Arctic Ocean corridors. Most of us spend our time staring at 2D Mercator-esque maps, so I highly recommend taking a look at things from the top down to appreciate this:
Also see: https://geology.com/world/arctic-ocean-map.shtml
I think it’s best to consider that this is a long term play for control of the Arctic. Sea ice very much remains a factor, but the amount is shrinking every year due to global warming. Over time this opens up new seasonal routes, both for drilling and transport.
Sure, it could just be Trump’s narcissism wanting him to add another state during his presidency. The thing to remember is that someone else is always the one giving him these ideas. (see: Project 2025) These imperialistic ambitions on Greenland and Canada of all places did not emerge from nowhere. It’s the motives of people who are giving him these ideas that you need to be concerned with.
Svalbard is next.
There are no checks. There are no balances. There is nothing stopping them…
This isn’t Trump’s vanity - this is the oligarchs, who do not care about nation states, carving up the globe as a resource grab.
The US will annex Greenland. The US will invade Canada. The US will kill protesters, starting with the students.
Concentration camps. Gulags. The disappearing of opponents and mass killings of the undesirables.
Europe will try to unify, but their democracies are already beset by oligarchs, from Putin to Musk, who are financing newly emboldened far-right fringe groups and political candidates.
Europe may rally and pull together.
Or, they may fracture from external pressure and splinter from internal dissention; that is the plan.
less than 5% of Americans support using economic strong-arming, and less than 1% support military force for Greenland or Canada (source below). Annexing is overwhelming unpopular for both conservatives and liberals. The people, including people in the military, will revolt if Trump uses force to annex any country. And the people of Canada and Greenland have made it very very clear: force will be necessary.
No comment from me about the rest. Expectations can be bad but keep them in check.
They don’t seem overly concerned with public opinion or the possibility they might be removed from power by the vote.
likely, they are banking on us to revolt so they can deploy the military domestically.
If the whole thing seems like unchecked expectations - so did the dissolution of NATO prior to 2016.
I could see Trump taking this attitude until he meets his very first encounter with the actual degree of stress he’d have to suffer to execute it.
He would then immediately give up and blame, I don’t know, Egypt or something.
Trump has no willpower or self-regulation skills at all. He is not a planner, a leader, or a strategist. He’s not willing to work, ever, for any reason. A war is beyond his capacity.
And nobody willing to align with him is competent.
