Archive: https://archive.is/2025.03.18-050128/https://www.ft.com/content/7fed8f2b-98c7-43c6-88b3-d66be449bfac
Macron has repeatedly stressed that a French president would always have ultimate power to decide whether to use the bomb — the same applies to Britain and the US within Nato.
Together, British and French nuclear capabilities would at least make Moscow think twice about attacking, said a senior western official.
However, “what really influences Russian decision-making is the scale of US deterrence”, he said. Europe would need at least a decade of spending at around 6-7 per cent of GDP if it wanted to emulate that and acquire another 1,000 warheads, he added.
More countries need to go nuclear now that America is the 2IC of the new axis of evil
Brits have for a long time had enough nukes to destroy Moscow (and Sankt-Petersburg?) sometimes this is called “Moscow criterion”. French nuclear arsenal is larger
That sounds like a reasonable amount of nukes. If the threat of losing one or two major cities isn’t deterrent enough, were in absolute lunatic territory anyways, and no amount of more nukes will deter any further.
The French have been always pretty explicit about it:
Within ten years, we shall have the means to kill 80 million Russians. I truly believe that one does not light-heartedly attack people who are able to kill 80 million Russians, even if one can kill 800 million French, that is if there were 800 million French.
(De Gaulle in 70s)
If one side only loses 1 or 2 cities, you do not have mutual assured destruction. And the loss of 2 cities is really not much compared to the general losses in conventional war. So no, that’s absolutly not enough deterrent.
Moscow has 11 million inhabitants. That’s half the Soviet losses in WWII, which were insanely high.
It’s about the total losses of the Axis powers over the spam of the entire war.
What the fuck are you talking about?
However, “what really influences Russian decision-making is the scale of US deterrence”, he said.
I find that hard to believe, considering that nuclear weapons have no strategic or tactical military applications whatsoever and only serve as an (effective) PR-campaign for scaring opposing civilian populations.
… does the Russian civilian population have any influence on Russian decision-making? Is there any point in running expensive PR-campaigns against them?
… does the Russian civilian population have any influence on Russian decision-making? Is there any point in running expensive PR-campaigns against them?
Never forget Stanislav Petrov. In the end it’s a human that needs to press the button, at least for now.
Never forget Stanislav Petrov. In the end it’s a human that needs to press the button, at least for now.
Fair (with a special ominous shoutout to your “at least for now”), but do you think Petrov’s or any similar individual person’s decision making in this scenario would involve any considerations regarding the size launching nation’s or block’s arsenal? I.e. “Launch detected from US… hm, better play it safe. Launch detected from France… eh, hit that button!”?
I mean… nuclear threat is nuclear threat. I am not questioning the effectiveness of that threat, I’m questioning the premise of the article.
When evaluating Mutually Assured Destruction scenarios military must consider backup plan for what happens after we bomb ourselves back to Stone Age. Russia has much more capability to carry on due to size, low population density and being used to things being awful all around. They’re mad but they are also cold calculating bastards that they are probably estimating chances of Syberia / Arctic being habitable after bombs and global warming.
„What is the point of the world without Russia in it?” - Putin bluffed some time ago.
There is a French movie about a similar situation : The Wolf’s Call.
the French military command detects a nuclear missile sent from Russia towards France, they send the order to retaliate to their submarine but … (I am trying not to spoil the whole movie, people should watch it. Even though it’s from 2019 it is very fitting with what is happening now)
nuclear weapons have no strategic or tactical military applications
They very much do. Nukes can be fine-tuned pretty well regarding blast radius, radiation intesity and duration of effect. Someone dropping a huge bomb on a city is how everyone pictures the start of a nuclear war but tactical missile strikes on military equipment and infrastructure would be much more likely. It’s extremely difficult to destroy fortified military structures with conventional weaponry.
Any tactical use would quickly escalate to strategic use. Anyone who claims otherwise doesn’t know what they are talking about (including the authors of the original article).
France has more than enough nukes as a deterrent. More important are credible second strike delivery mechanisms. Which rules out those silly gravity bombs the US has stationed in Germany for political reasons. How effective the French submarine fleet is in that regard is largely unknown, but on paper at least it looks solid.
Any tactical use would quickly escalate to strategic use.
I’d say there is a chance of a large scale conventional counter attack in that scenario but it’s a slim one. Definitely not a risk any sane person would ever take.
Russia literally can’t beat the Ukraine, I’m fairly certain they can’t take a unified Europe
