I’ve run the news articles through an ai and it says the quickest way to force a ceasefire is for the us to arm lebanon
That’s exactly what Netanyahu and his cronies did to Rabin.
That’s probably literally why they assassinated him
Temporary ceasefire = “Okay, we finished our turn of attacks, now pause while we resupply, only we get to attack, not you!”
A temporary ceasefire is the first stop to a permanent ceasefire.
If Israel wants to win militarily against Hezbollah, i’d say Gaza is a cautionary tale for that. Despite all of the destruction Hamas is weakened but nut destroyed and only very few hostages were freed by force (with insane numbers of Palestinian civillians killed while doing it). The vast majority of hostages was freed by negotiations.
John Mearsheimer said that military action is a very limited tool. We have seen this in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam…
Gaza is a cautionary tale for that
Just like with Vietnam, it seems the measure of success is in blood. Since the population of Gaza has been decimated - quite literally 1 in 10 Palestinians are now dead and we’re expecting tens to hundreds of thousands more dead before the end of next year due to famine and disease, nevermind war - while the Israelis report minimal casualties, they believe they are “winning”.
We have seen this in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam…
The lesson of these wars to the political class is that they win reelections, they generate enormous profits, and they never seem to bother the median voter over the long term.
In Afghanistan and Iraq we already knew that bombing people was not how you get rid of ideas. That’s why we spent 20 and 10 years (respectively) in those countries. We weren’t bombing anything if we could help it. And in Iraq we managed to put in a semi-stable government. In Afghanistan we managed to push the majority of the fighting into the mountains, away from most civilian population centers. We just straight screwed up the civil part afterwards.
We learned that bombing doesn’t kill morale in World War 1, World War 2, Korea, and Vietnam. Vietnam is the last time we tried carpet bombing civilian populations, and is often cited as the reason we developed the guided bomb kits, small diameter bombs, and even kamikaze drones that specifically do not explode and cause as little disturbance as possible other than people they directly impact.
This has been a learned lesson with a known solution for decades.
A temporary ceasefire is the first stop to a permanent ceasefire.
One of Hezbollah’s stated goals is the “liberation of Israel”.
And Likud wants Israel to be “from the river to the sea”. More extreme Israelis want a “greater Israel” from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, to Iraq through Syria up until Turkey.
But if we want to achieve peace we need to deescalate things, then establish justice and drive the extremists out. The only alternative to deescalation is a great war, that would kill and displaces millions of people and quite possibly start world war 3.
I don;t wish death on anyone even if I semi dislike them. But to me Hezbollah needs to be cut off like a heroin addicts arm from to much use. From growing up with the dipshits it seems to me that they and iran just wait for Israel to do something they don’t like and fire missles at them. I feel sorry for people of Lebanon and don’t think hurting civs should be the answer. But they put them in power. But and probably get get a lot of shit for me saying this. I have a I don’t care attitude for whatever Israel does to Iran.
it seems to me that they and iran just wait for Israel to do something they don’t like and fire missles at them
They don’t wait to do anything. They hate Israel for what Israel has done to their Palestinian neighbors as well as to Lebanon and Iran. Hezbollah didn’t just suddenly spring up out of nowhere. The group was literally founded to halt Israeli aggression. This is the only reason Israel hasn’t occupied Lebanon and oppressed them the way they oppress the Palestinians.
I think you meant they hate that they lost the 1948 war where they invaded trying to completely destroy Israel and got destroyed themselves doing it.
Where they tried to revert the rogue state founded by terrorists who drove the British out and as many Palestinians as they could? Oh no, such badness.
But no Hezbollah was founded during Israel’s long occupation of Southern Lebanon, where Israel explicitly tried Soviet tactics to expand, by extending their civil services to Southern Lebanese in good standing with Israel.
