Montgomery Scott of the Starship Enterprise has entered the chat.
You know, maybe we shouldn’t be taking estimation advice from a 1980s science fiction movie that amounts to a systematic method of lying.
Yes, I’ve used it before. Yes, you can hopefully have everything average out in the end. Yes, project managers demand estimates. None of these are good reasons to back up how fundamentally flawed it is.
It’s called a joke. We’re in a sub called “programmer humor.” You must be fun at parties.
Except people take that method seriously all the time. All the objections I raised were one’s people have actually thrown back at me.
I’m tons of fun at parties. Everybody loves seeing my collection of bottles from defunct soda companies.
My manager once accused me of overinflating my (granted, very conservative) estimates just to be able to pull off a Scotty and be early in 10% of the time.
I don’t know, that mindset is so foreign to me. If someone was overestimating how long it would take because they were simply trying to be conservative and not run into unexpected cost overruns, I would commend them. I’ve always considered it more prudent to expect something to take longer so you know the kind of budget you need up front instead of lying to yourself about it. It costs a lot more (in terms of lost time and productivity) to have to swing a new budget mid-project because it turns out you’ve burned through the planned budget and you’re only 2/3 the way done with the project.
So, screw your manager, you’re doing the right thing, in my eyes. I guess that’s why I’m not in charge of anything.
It makes me happy to see the good place memes.
The Good Place mentioned!!! 🗣️🔥🔥
Don’t forget to add padding, so I’d just round it out to 18 months to be safe.
this is my number one thing I hate. So we are going to be converting over one system to another and you have no ideas what issues will pop up. give an estimation on the project. or like estimation onf fixing a bug or doing something you think the software can do but your not real sure till you look into it.
The known unknowns and especially the unknown unknowns never get factored into an estimate. People only ever think about the happy path, if everything goes right. But that rarely every happens so estimates are always widely off.
The book How Big Things Get Done describes a much better way to factor in everything without knowing all the unknowns though - Just look a previous similar projects and look how long they took, take the average and bounds then adjust up or down if you have good reason to do so. Your project will very likely take a similar amount of time if your samples are similar in nature to your current task. And the actual time already factors in all the issues and problems encountered and even if you don’t hit all the same issues your problems will likely take a similar amount of time. And the more previous examples you have the better these estimates get.
But instead of that we just pluck numbers out of the air and wonder why we never hit them.
yeah I have literally had something where I list off a bunch of problmatic stuff and how it could be some high side and then follow up or everything could go swimmingly which never happens and we could have this low side and they are like ok so the low side. no. no. that is not what im saying.
