If we’re successful, then we’ll see an influx of spam and corporate influence. We’ll have to make filters and blocks easy and effective, and in some way automated.
If we can meet that challenge, we’ll thrive; if not, we’ll whither and die.
I don’t really have a fantastic prediction, because I don’t feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.
I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.
Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.
I think that it’s hard to call those factors.
I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they’ve got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.
I don’t know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn’t mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.
If the major social media companies still exist by then, I think it will still be the same as it is now. Maybe a bit more users, but still a minority in the space.
Dead