I wish them the best of luck. Not that they have any chance of success but the more damage they cause to the Russian army, the better
Was there actually anything stopping them before, other than some traffic cops with a grenade launcher, and some excavator operators frantically digging up the motorway?
For everyone just tuning in: This show is notorious for having bad season finales.
Take it with a grain of salt, people, none of the trustworthy sources confirmed any of that - just a couple of Ukrainian outlets (understandable as psyop) and, well, yahoo news and the like.
As a Russian living in Russia and, obviously, closely following all the shit show, it does not seem like Wagner is going to do anything.
Then again, I’m not sure about shit after 24 Feb 2022.
I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction. And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
PREFACE: Prior to 24 Feb 2022, I was really skeptical that Putin would start the war at all, though, so I might be really wrong here - I’m no expert, just a regular rusky Ivan with some opinions. Things in Russia aren’t really predictable at the moment.
And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
Unfortunately, all the tax-payers - remember, the government has no money of its own, only the money of its citizen and tax residents.
I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction.
Judging by the mutiny in June, I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines. The PMC itself will be probably be manipulated into control one way or another, either via a direct acquisition or some other scheme, all in attempt to smother the beast Putin himself had created.
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he’s very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he’s ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they’re not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn’t lived that lifestyle before (and won’t know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn’t any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
All that being said, the most important point is the following: Russia as a governmental entity has been very carefully engineering a society with as few leaders as possible, and succeeded well enough to make sure that our people just don’t really act on their desires and urges to protest en masse and for long; while it’s one thing for us, civilians, who aren’t armed, aren’t hardened by combat, aren’t used to real violence, the Wagner mercs aren’t really taught to be free-thinking individuals either, so even if they all want to storm Kremlin, I just don’t see that happening unless a figure powerful enough to lead them emerges.
I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines.
That’s what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a “skills interview and test” (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.
Then if the regular military catches wind of anyone’s pay, you can just say “they are an elite squad, some get paid more due to hazard pay”
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he’s very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he’s ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they’re not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn’t lived that lifestyle before (and won’t know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn’t any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
This is fascinating and the first I have heard of this. You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?
