But did the coup really fail? Prigozhin simply called it off after !another! country negotiated a solution. The coup in Turkey failed because of, seemingly, Erdogan being too powerful and the people loving him. In Russia it failed because of Lukashenko intervening and Prigozhin calling it off. Putin does not look strong currently.
Of course he called it off lmao. He had NO SUPPORT. He was totally isolated.
Compare this to the gang of eight when the communists attempted but failed a coup and you’ll see what a real powerful coup attempt looks like. That failed.
Look at who supported and took part in that and compare it to Prigozhin’s isolated attempt with absolutely no support, no allies, nothing, while every single other political and military force in the country backed the state.
Prigo grossly overestimated his position. He thought he would get supporters once it was launched, he got absolutely nothing and he backed out at the earliest opportunity with a guarantee of his life being protected in Belarus. This was accepted by state because the alternative would have been a disaster for Russia with thousands of dead in a battle for Rostov and defence of the outskirts of Moscow.
I mean, I agree with your points here. Honestly, I’m wondering why he started in the first place as his life still is in danger.
I just don’t agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn’t this show how weak Russia currently is?
I think he simply grossly overestimated his support, believing that something more would come of it that did not.
I just don’t agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn’t this show how weak Russia currently is?
It has embarrassed Russia for sure, the global south in particular supports Russia a lot and there will be some respect lost through it but that’s not going to change much about why they support Russia (serves their interests to see a multipolar world emerge) so they’ll continue to do so.
While it may have caused foreign embarrassment that’s not really important in terms of “strength” of the state. The strength of a state is determined by the political and military powers within it supporting it and its institutions. Literally all of them did so which has ultimately served to resolve the question “is it possible for Russia to collapse?” with a resounding “No” at this time.
By comparison and to do a big whatabout - I would say that the US has a greater amount of division and potential for political and financial factions to attempt to tear it apart. I however don’t think that there is anyone quite as bold or stupid as Prigo to overestimate their support or underestimate the size of the support you need to tear apart and successfully coup a country like that though.
Like I keep pointing out, the gang of eight were an incredibly powerful coalition that failed. They serve as an example of the kind of coalition you really need to pull this shit off and they make Prigo look like a bit of a joke by comparison. Part of me wonders if members of the Russian intelligence community deliberately led him on into believing he had support in order to create this outcome, but that’s pure speculation. The man isn’t entirely stupid though, so I have to wonder what exactly made him think he would have more support.
The whole thing reeks of a fake operation now that Lukashenko was the solution AND Biden making a statement that US isn’t involved. Neither states are trustworthy narrators. Who knows
First things first, the US is going to deny involvment either way. So this means nothing TBH.
Lukashenko being involved is quite weird to me and makes me wonder if there is something going on there. Does Prigozhin really think that his life is safe now? Or was it simply delayed (e.g. because of assistance by Lukashenko in a future coup?). It doesn’t really make sense either way.
