Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9202260

Vladimir Putin will spark a third world war if the Russian president is allowed to declare victory in Ukraine, according to the boss of the country’s biggest private employer.

Yuriy Ryzhenkov, chief executive of Metinvest, which ran the sprawling Azovstal steelworks that became the site of a relentless Russian assault at the start of the 2022 invasion, warned of the consequences of a Kremlin victory.

“I don’t believe that if Ukraine fails, Putin will stop,” he said in an interview ahead of the two year anniversary of the war in Ukraine. “The Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia are the next targets.”

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You left out that your neighbor is more than capable of taking it by force, and you making him do so will cause millions of deaths. The answer to this question depends entirely on America’s ego. If we do our usual thing, we will save face and cause millions of deaths. If we instead choose to wage peace, we look slightly weaker, and prevent a world war. It’s unlikely America is capable of advanced reasoning such as this, but I really hope we are.

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If we instead choose to wage peace, we look slightly weaker, and prevent a world war.

Man, you really need an history book and to study what happened before WWII.

Let me explain a couple of things.

Before WWII, in March 1938 Hitler annexed Austria on March the 12th with referendum on April the 10th (where the ballot were not secret and the vote were manipulate). After that, Europe did nothing because, like you, they thought that if they concede to this Hitler demand, he will not ask for anything else. Look for Anschluß Österreichs

Then look for Munich Agreement (October 1938) which granted Hitler part of the Czechoslovakia as last request for territorial expansion, signed just because doing this way they would have kept peace.

Then on March 15th 1939, Hitler bullied the Czechoslovakia president to sign the independence of Slovak (with the threat of invasion). The Slovak state then became Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia on March the 16th. Europe still does nothing, just because Hitler assured this will be his last request.

We all know what happened next, on September 1939…

It’s unlikely America is capable of advanced reasoning such as this, but I really hope we are.

Problem is: it was exactly this “advanced reasoning” that was the cause for WWII. Hitler did what he wanted because he noted that Europe did nothing at every step he tried.

Putin invaded Ukraine because he noted that the world did nothing when he annexed Crimea (and, btw, breached an agreement Russia signed with Ukraine).

Do you see the parallel ?

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I don’t see the parallel, because so far, Russia and Germany have literally one thing in common. You’re extrapolating that several highly unlikely events will just so happen to occur the same way they did the first time. Your entire argument could just as easily be applied to america in like 4 different decades between WW2 and now, yet not once did America start a world war as a result. The situation in Russia is wildly different from 1930s Germany, and trying to declare them to be the same is far too reductive to be useful analysis.

Also, Putin invaded more of Ukraine because it is literally on the way to Crimea, and owning just the peninsula is weird. The entirety of the invasion consists of the coast of a single large bay. There is no logical reason to think that Putin is the next Hitler. He literally just wants a region that has historically been highly important to Russia/USSR. It’s like if America were currently invading Texas, because we lost it to Mexico for 20 years and want it back.

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So, if I understand you correctly, Russia should also invade Latvia and Lithuania? By your logic it would be highly important to Russia since they would get a land bridge to Kaliningrad and they were historically part of the USSR.

The analogy to Anschluss Österreichs and Crimea is quite apt. The votings were manipulated - just look at the soldiers outside of voting stations on Crimea, who in their right mind wouldn’t want to vote for selfpreservation?
The second analogy would be Sudetenland and Donetsk and Luhansk is as apt with the only distinction that there is a war now going on. The two republics that are only recognized by Russia and their “Motherland”. While Hitler didn’t have a Sudeten-Republik he wanted to get them back into the fold. So it is also quite apt.

Does Russia have parallels to Germany 1930s? Yes. And no. Why not? Time moved on, tactics evolved (just look at the two republics). Why yes? Some tactics stayed the same. And greed.

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Let’s go back to the days of redrawing borders by force. That definitely won’t encourage more wars.

Brilliant.

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Of course! If we end the war, we will have more wars. It’s so obvious!

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We shouldn’t have fighted Hitler, because wars are bad.

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