Blue Origin is just about to launch its reusable heavy-lift ‘New Glenn’ rocket in a few days. Are we about to see a version of Aesop’s tale of ‘The Hare & the Tortoise’ play out, with SpaceX playing the role of the hare?
This Sabine Hossenfelder video does a good job of laying out the argument - Jeff Bezos’ Space Plans Make More Sense Than Elon Musk’s.
In summary, Blue Origin’s plans are built around space stations in near earth orbit, while SpaceX’s plans are for Mars colonization. It’s far more likely Blue Origin’s plans can be realized in the 2030s and 2040s. Apart from China, no one else will have a space station by around 2030 when the ISS goes - there will be no other choice but to look to commercial providers.
Blue Origin’s plans for space stations designed as O’Neill cylinders with artificial gravity are the obvious next step on from ISS-type space stations.
Blue Origin is still far more likely to be successful with a space station long before a Mars colony is remotely viable. The list of challenges SpaceX hasn’t even started to explore in getting a viable Mars colony going is huge.
But the space station has next to nothing to do with a rocket they’re almost ready to test for the first time…
Having an idea you might get to eventually doesn’t make you the leader in anything.
You’re the one who brought up the Mars colony. Not me.
I was only talking about the practical, currently existent rocket capabilities. I thought I made that abundantly clear.
