I just don’t think your position holds up under its own assumptions.
First, you require an Egypt that is simultaneously terrified of Israel but also blockades the Strait of Tiran for no obvious strategic or economic purpose. Yes, Israel was a part of the winning side in the previous war but also had significant British and French help.
Yes, Israel was fully mobilized, because Egypt had just crossed a line that Israel said was an act of war. Having neighbours on all sides who occasionally try to invade and murder all your people will also make you more willing to mobilize quickly, especially when about 1/3 of all Jews had just been murdered.
It just boggles the imagination that someone could look at the following facts and say “yeah, Israel started this.”:
A) Egypt, against maritime and international law (as brokered by the UN) and the terms of its previous peace deal, blockaded Israel from a major port. Israel declares (as per the terms of the peace treaty and Israel’s stated position) that this is an act of war.
B) Egypt then along with several neighbours deploys, along multiple borders, an army that outmans, outguns and outplanes (okay, has air superiority but that doesn’t work as well with the pattern!) Israel by a 2:1 ratio and 3:1 in the serious stuff (armour/planes.)
C) Israel on the night of the attack is alone, without allies or material support.
I cannot imagine you are seriously saying that despite all the facts on the ground, the correct course of action for Israel was to wait until being engaged and then just pray that this time things worked out for the Jews? That’s just wild to me. “Sorry kids, sure, we saw all those soldiers massing but we really thought the Jews were only due one massacre per half century. Whoopsies!”
You keep assuming the Arab states were going to attack when there is no evidence of that. It’s just the fact that Israel felt threatened, when every country feels threatened. The way nations form is the basic narrative that there is an enemy out there threatening you and you have to band together to take on that enemy. Even countries as secure as the u.s. will contrive threats from China or the cartels to point to an enemy.
Again I’m not going to argue which party fealt more threatened because that’s a subjective experience. There are countries that are just as threatened as Israel was and they don’t attack.
All the points you just made could be made for enemies of the u.s. like Iran, north Korea and Cuba. North Korea also suffered a horrific bombing campaign by a country on there border and suffers far more from economic sanctions then Israel ever did when the straits were closed. The embargo on Cuba has repeatedly been called out as against international law. If Cuba or north Korea demanded an end to sanctions or it would be war, and then the u.s. poured troops in to surround them on there borders would it be right for them to launch a first strike against Seoul or Florida?
No you’d probably say they made a threat to the u.s. with that ultimatum and the u.s. deploying troops was a valid response to that threat. Any sort of ultimatum that involves war should be considered a threat and an escalation. You don’t get a pass because you were treated horribly before.
