Die aktuellen Kämpfe wurden wohl maßgeblich von der Gruppe “Haiat Tahrir al-Scham” durchgeführt, und das sind anscheinend Islamisten mit Verbindungen zu Al-Kaida. Es gibt auch eher sekuläre Gruppen in der syrischen Opposition, aber deren Einfluss dürfte nach den aktuellen Geschehnissen recht niedrig sein.
Aus Sicht der syrischen Bevölkerung habe ich eher weniger Hoffnung.
Aus Sicht der syrischen Bevölkerung habe ich eher weniger Hoffnung.
Ich vermute das ist noch nicht klar wohin das da in Zukunft geht aber wirklich auskennen tue ich mich natürlich nicht.
The formation of HTS was followed by a string of assassinations of its supporters. In response, HTS launched a successful crackdown on Al-Qaeda loyalists, which cemented its power in Idlib. HTS has since been pursuing a “Syrianization” programme; focused on establishing a stable civilian administration that provides services and connects to humanitarian organizations in addition to maintaining law and order.
[…]
After reaching a ceasefire deal brokered by Turkey, HTS turned its attention to destroying Al-Qaeda cells and Islamic State remnants in Idlib.[139] Rivalry between Al-Qaeda aligned Hurras al-Din and Tahrir al-Sham had begun to escalate violently as early as December 2019. In February 2021, HTS intensified its fight against al-Qaeda cells by launching a large-scale crackdown that saw many military commanders and leaders of Hurras al-Din incarcerated.[133] According to Istanbul-based academic Abbas Sharifeh, the measures were part of a strategy by HTS for governance consolidation: “Golani simply does not want any competitors in Idlib, especially from a jihadi current affiliated with al-Qaeda.”[133] By 2023 Tahrir al-Sham had eliminated most of the clandestine networks of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, disarmed the militias and established total control over Idlib.[139]
U.S. government accuses Tahrir al-Sham of working with al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch on a covert level, despite its self-identification as a distinct organisation.[205] Some analysts assert that many of the group’s senior figures, particularly Abu Jaber, held similarly extreme views.[147][206] However, Tahrir al-Sham has officially denied being part of al-Qaeda and said in a statement that the group is “an independent entity and not an extension of previous organizations or factions”.[1] In his 2021 interview to PBS News, Abu Muhammad al-Julani argued that financial co-operation with Al-Qaeda was necessary to defend Syrians from the tyranny of the Assad regime, and stated that “even at that time when we were with Al Qaeda, we were against external attacks”.[149] Clarifying the reasons behind the termination of relations with Al-Qaeda, Julani said:
“[W]hen we saw that the interest of the revolution and the interest of the people of Syria was also to break up from [the] Al Qaeda organization, we initiated this ourselves without pressure from anybody, without anybody talking to us about it or requesting anything. It was an individual, personal initiative based on what we thought was in the public interest that benefits the Syrian revolution.”
Danke, beim Al-Kaida-Thema lag ich wohl falsch. Islamismus ist aber nicht nur Al-Kaida und ISIS/ISIL; HTS scheint zwar moderater zu sein als manch andere islamistische Gruppe im Nahen Osten (vor allem was die Methoden betrifft), aber der Wikipedia-Artikel beschreibt sie trotzdem durchgängig als Fundamentalisten.
Wie gesagt, ich kenne mich da nicht aus aber Leute die sich auskennen haben wohl ein differenzierteres Bild.
Syrian rebels claim victory as Assad flees. What next? | LBC analysis
Ich gebe zumindest die Hoffnung noch nicht auf.
Hab gestern ein tldr Video dazu gesehen und die haben das so eingeordnet, dass die HTS Leute schon länger mit verschiedenen Minoritäten zusammenarbeiten und sogar irgendeinen Bischof als einen Bürgermeister stellen wollen etc. Mal schauen, was draus wird, aber klingt jetzt erstmal nicht ganz katastrophal.
